In Moscow's Shadows 175: 'In a dangerous world, strike first' - Russian strategic culture
Nov 17, 2024
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Explore the evolution of Russian strategic culture, shaped by its vast geography and historical invasions. Delve into how authoritarianism intertwines with military strategies, showcasing adaptability beyond mere technology. Unpack Putin's aggressive drive to reestablish Russia's power, influenced by a long-standing sense of vulnerability. Understand the historical motivations for preemptive actions, from the Tsarist era to contemporary conflicts. Plus, discover ways to engage more deeply with unique content through support opportunities.
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Quick takeaways
Russian strategic culture is shaped by historical vulnerabilities and a pervasive sense of defensiveness, leading to preemptive foreign policy decisions.
Authoritarian centralism in Russia necessitates control and compliance, resulting in cycles of modernization and stagnation within its governance and society.
Deep dives
The Evolution of Russian Strategic Culture
Russian strategic culture has its roots in a unique set of historical, geographical, and social factors that have shaped its approach to security over centuries. This culture is characterized by deeply embedded understandings of threats and responses that are not just policy-driven but are instinctual reactions based on the nation's size, location, and socio-economic conditions. For instance, Russia's vastness and lack of natural borders have historically exposed it to invasions by powerful neighbors, which contributes to a pervasive sense of vulnerability that informs its strategic mindset. As a result, Russian leaders have often adopted preemptive strategies to counter perceived external threats, merging historical experiences with contemporary concerns.
The Role of Authoritarian Centralism
Authoritarian centralism is a foundational element of Russian strategic culture, arising from the necessity to maintain control and maximize tax revenues to fund a strong defense posture. Given Russia's historical vulnerabilities, this centralism manifests in a tendency toward coercion to suppress internal dissent and ensure compliance with state demands. The relationship between the state and its citizens is shaped by the understanding that resistance can lead to severe consequences, necessitating a robust government response to any perceived rebellion. This dynamic has led to cycles of modernization and stagnation throughout Russian history, reflecting an ongoing struggle between the need for reform and the fear of destabilization.
Aggressive Defensiveness in Foreign Policy
Aggressive defensiveness describes how Russia often perceives threats from outside its borders, leading to a preemptive approach in its foreign policy. This concept is evident in historical conflicts, where Russia has taken decisive action to protect its interests, believing that waiting for an enemy to act first would lead to disaster. Examples of this aggressive stance include Russia's responses to both World Wars and more recent actions in Ukraine and Georgia, where rapid military actions were justified as necessary to secure national security. The repeated expansion of Russian territory has also been framed as a means of creating strategic depth against potential invaders, thereby reinforcing a belief in the need for a proactive defense.
Asymmetric Warfare and Adaptation Strategies
Asymmetric assumptions are another core aspect of Russian strategic culture, reflecting the recognition that Russia often faces adversaries with superior conventional military capabilities. In response, Russia has historically adapted its strategies by adopting unconventional tactics, including the use of proxy forces and hybrid warfare. For instance, the Russian military has been known to incorporate mercenaries and foreign expertise to compensate for gaps in its capabilities, while also employing disinformation and subversion to destabilize opponents from within. This approach aims to shift the battlefield advantage to areas where Russia holds a comparative strength, such as resilience and determination, utilizing these factors in both military and geopolitical confrontations.
'Strategic culture' means the underlying cultural assumptions about threats and options that informs a nation's specific strategic choices, and Russia's has been strikingly continuous for centuries. As I discuss, it reflects the underlying circumstances and challenges of the country, and while not a straightjacket -- Gorbachev and Brezhnev were products of the same culture -- it helps explain Putin's own decisions.
The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotage
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.