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The Trudeau Fiscal Consensus
- The Trudeau consensus means Canada's fiscal future will reflect Trudeau's legacy regardless of the 2025 election outcome.
- Both Liberal and Conservative platforms maintain higher spending and revenue levels compared to previous governments, reflecting this consensus.
Trudeau's Fiscal Baseline Expansion
- Trudeau expanded federal spending and revenue by about 2 percentage points of GDP compared to Harper.
- This established a new fiscal baseline of bigger government, more debt tolerance, and focus on social and green investments.
Conservative Fiscal Realities
- Conservative plan reduces revenue slightly but remains above Harper-era levels and depends on difficult-to-verify waste cuts.
- Their deficit projections rely on optimistic growth assumptions, possibly leading to higher deficits than Trudeau's projections.