The Prospect Podcast After the protests: What does Iran’s future hold?
Jan 21, 2026
Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, a Middle East analyst at Control Risks, dives into the current state of protests in Iran. She highlights how this wave of unrest is characterized by broader grievances and a higher death toll compared to past protests. Aniseh assesses the regime's chances of survival and discusses the potential repercussions of foreign threats. With various scenarios outlined for Iran’s future, including the risks of fragmentation and the unlikely return of the Pahlavi monarchy, the dialogue offers a thought-provoking analysis of the delicate geopolitical landscape.
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Repression Temporarily Silences Protests
- The government has retaken streets through extensive force, silencing protests for now.
- Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi warns this is a pause, not a resolution of grievances.
Protests Are Larger And Contextually Different
- This round saw a much higher death toll and wider destruction than prior protests.
- Iran's weakened regional position and domestic crises increased perceived regime vulnerability.
Survival Depends On Shifts In Power
- Short-term survival doesn't mean long-term stability for the regime.
- Collapse requires organized movements, leadership, security force fragmentation, or external shifts.