The Fox News Rundown From Washington: Could the House Flip Before the Midterms?
Jan 4, 2026
Chad Pergram, Fox News Chief Congressional Correspondent, analyzes the precarious state of the House, discussing the impacts of special elections and potential retirements on Republican control. He predicts unprecedented shifts as vacancies loom ahead of the midterms. Joining him, Mitch Daniels, former Indiana governor, warns of the looming $39 trillion national debt and highlights the need for urgent reforms in Social Security and Medicare. Daniels advocates for spending restraint and exploring innovative solutions, like utilizing tariff revenue for deficit reduction.
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Historic Mid‑Congress Flip Is Plausible
- The House has never flipped mid‑Congress but 2026 could test that historic norm because of shrinking margins and special elections.
- Chad Pergram explains that resignations and runoffs could narrow the GOP edge into single digits, raising unusual risks for control.
Vacancies And Runoffs Shift The Math
- Math and timing drive the risk: Greene's resignation and a Democratic runoff in Texas shrink the Republican margin.
- Pergram shows how a handful of vacancies and special elections could reduce the GOP majority to a few seats.
Rare Special‑Election Upsets Happen
- Pergram recalls rare historical special‑election flips like Bob Turner and Don Cazayoux to show how unusual flips can happen.
- He highlights that special elections sometimes produce surprising outcomes despite district leanings.