Prof. Gary Marcus is a scientist, bestselling author and entrepreneur, well known as one of the most influential voices in AI. He is Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Neuroscience at NYU. He was founder and CEO of Geometric Intelligence, a machine learning company acquired by Uber in 2016.

Gary co-authored the 2019 book, Rebooting AI: Building Artificial Intelligence We Can Trust, and the 2024 book, Taming Silicon Valley: How We Can Ensure That AI Works for Us. He played an important role in the 2023 Senate Judiciary Subcommittee Hearing on Oversight of AI, testifying with Sam Altman.

In this episode, Gary and I have a lively debate about whether P(doom) is approximately 50%, or if it’s less than 1%!

00:00 Introducing Gary Marcus

02:33 Gary’s AI Skepticism

09:08 The Human Brain is a Kluge

23:16 The 2023 Senate Judiciary Subcommittee Hearing

28:46 What’s Your P(Doom)™

44:27 AI Timelines

51:03 Is Superintelligence Real?

01:00:35 Humanity’s Immune System

01:12:46 Potential for Recursive Self-Improvement

01:26:12 AI Catastrophe Scenarios

01:34:09 Defining AI Agency

01:37:43 Gary’s AI Predictions

01:44:13 The NYTimes Obituary Test

01:51:11 Recap and Final Thoughts

01:53:35 Liron’s Outro

01:55:34 Eliezer Yudkowsky’s New Book!

01:59:49 AI Doom Concept of the Day

Show Notes

Gary’s Substack — https://garymarcus.substack.com

Gary’s Twitter — https://x.com/garymarcus

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares — https://ifanyonebuildsit.com

Come to the Less Online conference on May 30 - Jun 1, 2025: https://less.online

Hope to see you there!

Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! https://www.youtube.com/@lethal-intelligence

PauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.info

Join the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

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This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit lironshapira.substack.com

Ep. 88: I Am a Cuck with Tim Heidecker PREVIEW (PATREON ONLY)