156: Joel Greenblatt: Legendary Investor and Author on Patience in the Investing Business
Oct 24, 2024
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Joel Greenblatt, a legendary investor and author, shares his wealth of knowledge from over 20 years at Columbia Business School and founding Gotham Asset Management. He emphasizes the importance of patience in investing, detailing how thorough valuation can lead to market recognition. Greenblatt discusses the active versus passive debate, stressing that passive investing suits those less equipped for in-depth analysis. He also highlights learning from investment mistakes and the significance of recognizing market inefficiencies for long-term success.
Patience in investing is crucial as thorough valuation analysis can take time for the market to recognize the true value of stocks.
Market concentration in the U.S. complicates achieving superior returns, emphasizing the significance of understanding growth alongside valuation in investment strategies.
Deep dives
The Importance of Patience in Investing
Investing requires patience, as highlighted by the experience of an educator who emphasizes the need for good valuation work. He insists that if students conduct thorough analyses, the market will eventually acknowledge their correct valuations, though the timing of this recognition can vary greatly—from weeks to years. This concept underscores that stocks are not merely abstract symbols but represent ownership in businesses, which will ultimately reflect their true value over time. Consequently, a successful investment strategy relies heavily on the investor's ability to remain patient even amid market fluctuations.
Navigating Market Concentration Challenges
Market concentration in the U.S. has made it ever more challenging for investors to achieve superior returns, with a small percentage of stocks responsible for the majority of gains. Historical data supports this notion, indicating that often just a handful of stocks account for all market returns, complicating efforts to predict which stocks will lead. The speaker notes that while this concentration is not unprecedented, the ability of large companies to sustain above-average growth presents unique challenges and opportunities for value investors. Understanding growth in conjunction with valuation is critical, as distinguishing between undervalued and overvalued stocks remains crucial in navigating this concentrated market space.
Shifts in Investment Strategy Over Time
The speaker reflects on the evolution of his investment strategies, moving from concentrated portfolios to diversified long-short strategies over time. Initially faced with substantial volatility and significant drawdowns, this shift has allowed for a smoother investment experience with less dramatic fluctuations in portfolio value. The change was driven by a desire to reduce risk and improve returns, recognizing that traditional value investing needed adaptation in a shifting economic landscape. As part of this evolution, the last two decades have shown that employing rigorous research and adhering to valuation principles can lead to significant long-term outperformance.
Private Markets and Changing Dynamics
The landscape of private markets is evolving, especially as interest rates change, raising questions about the future of private equity and venture capital. As borrowing costs increase, the capital allocated to private markets may face pressures that cause a ripple effect throughout public markets. Investors are looking for ways to adapt to these changing conditions while still being compensated for the risks they are taking. Engaging in thorough analysis and maintaining a strong understanding of valuation principles will be vital in navigating these transitions effectively.
This recording took place at the London Value Investor Conference over summer, where Simon hosted a discussion with Joel Greenblatt. Joel not only founded and runs Gotham Asset Management, but was also an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School for 20+ years.
In this discussion, Joel offers some exceptionally valuable insights into the issues of active versus passive, if valuation works pays, the need for patience, thoughts on concentration, and learning from mistakes.
He talks on the need for detailed valuation work in order to identify compelling valuation opportunities, but also of the need for patience for the market to recognise such situations.
He advocates passive for those ill-equipped to undertake detailed valuation work, and also recognises the challenges of owning too many overvalued and insufficient undervalued companies when you are passively invested.
He then explains how the best way to learn from one’s investing mistakes is to lose amounts of money that matter. Joel goes on to acknowledge that he would have been fired several times over, had it not been his own firm! A treasure trove of advice from a pro!
The interview is followed by a short Q&A. Thanks to the following for their contributions here: Steve Clapham of Behind the Balance Sheet, Mark Rubenstein of HPS Investment Partners, Ajit Dayal of Quantum Advisors India, and Cole Smead of Smead Capital Management.