Bloomberg Surveillance Markets Price in the Latest CPI and Trump-Harris Debate
Sep 11, 2024
Ebrahim Rahbari, an independent economist and former strategist at Citigroup, shares his expertise on disinflation trends and their potential effects on the U.S. economy. Javier Blas, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist focused on energy markets, delves into the complexities of oil pricing and recent debates surrounding energy policies. The conversation highlights the relationship between CPI data, inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary strategies, all while navigating the political implications showcased in the recent Trump-Harris debate.
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China's Disinflationary Impact
- The disinflationary, almost deflationary, trend in China is a significant global economic factor.
- This impacts the US by adding to existing global downside risks to inflation.
Shifting Inflation Drivers
- The US economy shifted from demand-driven inflation to a mix of supply and demand factors.
- Currently, demand is again playing a larger role, as seen in softening demand and goods price deflation.
Inflation Outlook
- Expect fast-falling inflation to reach the target by early next year.
- Be aware that structural factors point towards a world with higher inflation volatility over the long term.