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Experts analyze the possibility of a recession in the US and the uncertainty surrounding the unexpected economic situation. Factors driving falling inflation and the concept of a 'soft landing' are explored. Historical overview of past U.S. expansions and recessions. Changing perspectives on the economy, from initial optimism to cautious optimism.
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Quick takeaways
- The resiliency of the US economy and consumer demand, along with increased government spending, have contributed to a soft landing, avoiding a recession.
- Uncertainty around the impact of interest rate hikes and the possibility of inflation remaining stubbornly high or experiencing extreme volatility are concerns for economists and policymakers.
Deep dives
The Resilience of the Economy and the Soft Landing Scenario
Despite predictions of a recession, the economy has shown resilience, with unemployment remaining low and inflation coming down. This has led to the possibility of a soft landing, which many people would prefer over a recession. However, there is a concern about the lack of clarity regarding why inflation has decreased without affecting the unemployment rate. This has led to an existential crisis for economists and monetary policymakers, as traditional economic theories do not fully explain the current situation.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode