The Near Memo Google’s Next Move: AI, Antitrust Battles & the Decline of Search
In this episode of The Near Memo, Greg Sterling and Mike Blumenthal break down some of the biggest tectonic shifts happening at the intersection of AI, search, and antitrust law. The focal point? Google's claim that its Gemini AI now boasts 350 million monthly users. But what exactly counts as a user—and does stuffing Gemini into every app and product really mean it’s being used?
Greg and Mike dig deep into how Google is leveraging its product ecosystem—Chrome, Gmail, Workspace, Maps, Android, and Search—to inflate AI engagement numbers. The two unpack why Gemini still underperforms compared to ChatGPT and Claude, and what that gap reveals about Google’s AI rollout and user trust.
They also dive into the implications of the Department of Justice’s antitrust remedies following the conclusion of the Google search monopoly trial. What could it mean for the web if Google is forced to divest Chrome—or even Maps? The conversation explores Google’s use of default deals, bundling tactics, and how it might use its market power to dominate AI, just as it has search.
Along the way, they highlight YouTube’s overlooked role as a future-first search engine, powered by how-to content, brand channels, and a closed ecosystem that Google fully controls. And they dissect how local guides, AI-driven local search results, and Google's declining web traffic referrals are reshaping digital marketing as we know it.
Whether you're a marketer, SEO professional, journalist, or tech policy nerd—this episode gives you a grounded, provocative look at what’s really going on in the AI arms race.
🔑 Key Takeaways:
- Google’s Gemini user claim is deeply flawed.
350 million “monthly users” likely includes passive, backend interactions across the Google ecosystem—not active engagement. - Gemini underperforms compared to ChatGPT and Claude.
Independent research and user experience both point to Gemini lagging behind in quality and versatility. - DOJ is pushing for serious remedies—like divesting Chrome.
The antitrust trial may force Google to give up core assets or radically change how it bundles and distributes products. - Google’s biggest moat might be local.
With 150M local guides powering Maps and local profiles, Google's real strength lies in place-based information no one else has. - The old web deal is dying.
Google's former value exchange—“we send you traffic in exchange for your content”—is being replaced with “we scrape your site, and you buy the ads.” - YouTube may become the dominant search engine.
For how-to content and product discovery, YouTube beats traditional search—and Google controls every part of it. - Rand Fishkin’s desktop-only data misses key insights.
App usage and mobile behavior are reshaping how users interact with AI, but current reporting often overlooks this. - The SERP is evolving into AI Mode.
Google’s current hybrid of AI Overviews + Knowledge Graph is transforming how users experience local and informational queries. - Brands must diversify now.
With Google traffic likely to decline, businesses need to explore YouTube, TikTok, Perplexity, and other platforms—fast.
🎧 Tune in for:
- Smart, unscripted analysis
- Honest takes on Google’s AI positioning
- Real-world marketing strategy implications
- Predictions for how the search landscape is evolving
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