The Next Recession Isn't Here Quite Yet || Peter Zeihan
Jan 24, 2025
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The discussion revolves around the current stability of the U.S. economy, debunking fears of an imminent recession. It highlights millennial consumption trends and an industrial boom as positive indicators. A critical analysis of potential risks due to a declining Chinese economy is also presented. The conversation warns of the urgent need to boost industrial capacity to avoid severe shortages and inflation, which could create recession-like conditions, even if not formally recognized.
The U.S. economy's consumer spending is projected to remain strong through 2032 due to resilient millennial purchasing behaviors.
The exponential growth in U.S. industrial construction spending aims to compensate for declining Chinese manufacturing, highlighting potential future challenges in capacity.
Deep dives
Millennial Consumption and Economic Stability
The U.S. economy's reliance on consumer spending is highlighted, with roughly 70% of the economy driven by consumption. It is crucial to maintain a solid base of young consumers, primarily millennials aged 20 to 45, who have shown consistent spending behaviors similar to previous generations, albeit with delays. As the oldest millennials approach their late 40s, consumption rates are expected to remain robust for the next several years, supporting economic stability through 2032 and beyond. Past economic fluctuations demonstrate that even during industrial recession periods, millennial consumption has sustained the economy, leading to a positive outlook for near-term consumption levels.
Industrial Growth and Future Risks
The need to expand the U.S. industrial capacity in response to declining Chinese manufacturing is emphasized, requiring a significant increase in industrial facilities. The current industrial construction spending has increased tenfold in the last five years, indicating a proactive approach to meet demand. However, potential challenges could arise as the industry undergoes growth, leading to mismatches and corrections in the future. The main risk concerns the possibility of failing to scale industrial capacity adequately, which could result in inflationary pressures and shortages, although this scenario assumes a failure in execution rather than an imminent recession.
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Economic Forecast: Stability and Consumption Trends