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The Ultimate Guide To Predicting Recessions Has Just Been Released
Sep 27, 2024
Chris MacIntosh, a macroeconomic trends expert, and Lyn Alden, an investing guru, dive into recession forecasting. They breakdown key economic indicators like home equity and bank credit that hint at recessions. Chris introduces a new spreadsheet tool designed for visualizing these metrics, offering listeners a practical approach to predicting economic downturns. Lyn emphasizes the importance of historical data and specific rules for analyzing these indicators, making recession predictions more accessible and understandable.
29:23
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Quick takeaways
- Historical analysis of economic indicators shows stability in claims data, suggesting a lower probability of recession than previously anticipated.
- Monitoring market indicators like Treasury yields and delinquency rates is crucial for understanding shifts in consumer confidence and potential policy changes.
Deep dives
Spreadsheet Analysis of Economic Indicators
An analysis of historical data reveals the significance of different economic indicators in predicting recessions. The comparison of metrics during previous Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2001 and 2007 shows a varied picture, with more indicators currently flashing 'green', suggesting a lower probability of a recession than in those years. Metrics such as CPI, unemployment rates, and payroll claims indicate a complex economic environment where further cuts might not be necessary yet. The importance of monitoring these indicators continuously allows for a more holistic understanding of the economy's trajectory.
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