Prof G Markets The Biggest Disruption Is Yet to Come — ft. Justin Wolfers
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Dec 19, 2025 
Justin Wolfers, a Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the University of Michigan, dives into the economic currents shaping our future. He examines AI's complex relationship with employment, stressing that quick AI adoption could lead to job losses, while slow integration might offer workers new skills. Wolfers critiques U.S. tariffs as subtle inflation drivers with long-term costs. He also forecasts a need for coherent AI policy and considers how governance models like those in Canada and Australia could inspire better practices, fostering optimism amid uncertainty.
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Inputs Vs Outputs Determine Long‑Run Damage
- Justin Wolfers separates inputs (policies, appointments) from outputs (GDP, unemployment) when grading an administration's economic performance.
- He warns destructive inputs can reduce prosperity decades later even if short-term outputs look OK.
Rising Unemployment Hides In Plain Sight
- Unemployment is rising quietly in ways that disrupt lives without grabbing headlines.
- Wolfers says current unemployment changes matter even if they don't produce dramatic media attention.
Valuations Don’t Predict Who Keeps The Gains
- AI's corporate valuations don't necessarily reflect where economic gains land.
- If AI markets stay competitive, broad productivity gains may flow to users rather than creating massive firm profits.