China is closely watching Taiwan's presidential race, which will influence Xi Jinping's next steps. The hosts discuss the excitement surrounding the elections, highlighting lively campaign events and the significance of choosing a new president. They explore the pro-independence stance of the Democratic Progressive Party and the concerns of a pro-China candidate's supporters. The strained relations between China and Taiwan are analyzed, including China's warnings if the ruling party is reelected. The potential consequences of a pro-independence victory include economically coercive measures from China and the impact on the US-China relationship.
The upcoming presidential election in Taiwan is a choice between the ruling party's pro-independence stance and the opposition party's desire for dialogue with China, reflecting different approaches to safeguard Taiwan's democracy and connect with the world.
The election outcome could lead to a gridlock or a potential dialogue with China, depending on the mix of the ruling and opposition parties, shaping the future trajectory of Taiwan and the dynamics among China, Taiwan, and the United States.
Deep dives
The Stakes in Taiwan's Election: War or Peace?
The upcoming presidential election in Taiwan is not just about domestic concerns, but also about Taiwan's survival amid threats of war from China and tensions between China and America. The ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), is known for its pro-independence stance and emphasis on safeguarding Taiwan's democracy. They highlight the need to internationalize Taiwan and connect with the world without going through China. On the other hand, the opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), seeks to lower tensions and reopen dialogue with China, emphasizing pragmatism and economic issues. A new third party, the Taiwan People's Party, led by Ko Wen-je, aims to focus on domestic issues and be a mediator between China and America. China's preference is clear, with Xi Jinping expressing support for the KMT and a desire for Taiwan's reunification with China. However, there are concerns about the potential military and economic consequences if the DPP remains in power. The outcome of the election will not only impact Taiwan's future but also have broader implications for the complex dynamics between China, Taiwan, and the United States.
Gridlock and Uncertainty: Possible Election Results
The tight race in Taiwan's election could lead to various scenarios and potential outcomes. As of now, the DPP is slightly ahead in the polls. If they secure the presidency, while the KMT gains traction in the parliamentary elections, it could lead to a gridlock between the ruling party and the opposition. This may result in challenges in governing and decision-making processes, potentially further complicating cross-strait relations. On the other hand, a victory for the KMT could bring about efforts to lower tensions and initiate dialogue with China. However, it may be difficult for the KMT to make concessions that satisfy China's expectations, especially considering the changing dynamics and aspirations of Taiwanese society. Moreover, there is a possibility of a split result, creating further complexities in Taiwan's political landscape. Overall, the election outcome will shape Taiwan's future trajectory and the evolving dynamics among China, Taiwan, and the United States.
The Relevance of the Domestic Agenda
Amid discussions about war, peace, and cross-strait tensions, it is essential not to overlook the importance of the domestic agenda in Taiwan's election. The major parties, including the DPP, the KMT, and the Taiwan People's Party, present different approaches to addressing domestic issues such as housing, wages, and economic growth. The DPP highlights its achievements in safeguarding Taiwan's democracy and sovereignty while addressing localized concerns like parking lots and subsidies. The KMT emphasizes pragmatic solutions and economic cooperation with China, aiming to improve people's living conditions. The Taiwan People's Party, under Ko Wen-je's leadership, focuses on resolving social and economic challenges by prioritizing rational and scientific approaches. While national security and cross-strait relations are crucial, voters are also seeking solutions to daily life issues and improvements in living standards.
The Desire for Stability and the Status Quo
One common thread among Taiwanese voters is the desire for stability and the maintenance of the status quo. This sentiment extends beyond political divides and is shared by those who see themselves as Taiwanese and those with a Chinese identity. People value the stability provided by Taiwan's democracy and generally want to live their lives without radical moves that could lead to war or undermine their way of life. There is a recognition that tensions with China exist and that Taiwan needs to assert its interests and values, but voters also seek security and peaceful coexistence. The election provides an opportunity for voters to choose leadership that they believe will best protect Taiwan's interests and maintain stability, while considering the complex geopolitical landscape and the potential consequences of their choices.
Ahead of the vote on January 13th, Alice Su, our senior China correspondent, goes to campaign rallies of the 3 parties in the race. We meet voters, young and old, who each have a different idea of who should win and why. Together with David Rennie, our Beijing bureau chief, they ask: is the election of Taiwan’s next President really a choice between war or peace, as some candidates are saying?
If you’re interested in Taiwan, listen to our four-part series on the future of the island.
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