Mining Stock Daily

The $500 Billion Void: How a Decade of Underinvestment Created the 2026 Commodity 'Pinch Point'

Jan 13, 2026
Robert Mullin, CIO and Portfolio Manager at Marathon Resource Advisors, sheds light on the decade of underinvestment in the natural resources sector that's shaping the 2026 commodity cycle. He discusses the dramatic drop in capital expenditures and its impact on supply pinch points as global demand rises. Mullin highlights the shift from Western investors to gold buyers and warns of gut-wrenching volatility in the market. He also critiques the unrealistic expectations around Venezuelan oil recovery due to its devastated infrastructure.
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INSIGHT

Decade-Long CapEx Collapse Created Pinch Points

  • A decade of radical underinvestment cut natural-resources CapEx from about $600B to $100B annually.
  • That spending shortfall created structural supply pinch points now surfacing across commodities.
INSIGHT

Central Banks Rebalanced Reserves Toward Gold

  • Central banks shifted reserves into gold as U.S. bonds stopped diversifying in risk-off events.
  • That steady central-bank demand underpinned gold before Western investors joined in 2025.
INSIGHT

Western Investors Switched From Sellers To Buyers

  • Western investors stopped selling physical gold in early–mid 2025 and became buyers, removing a major source of supply.
  • That behavioral change amplified gold's rally and drew systematic and generalist funds into miners.
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