166. Green Equities Performance: Core vs Periphery
Jan 13, 2025
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Shanu Mathew, Senior Vice President at Lazard Asset Management and an expert in sustainable equities, dives into the contrasting performances of clean tech sectors in 2024. He highlights a 20% drop in 'Core' Cleantech versus the remarkable success of 'Periphery' companies like Siemens Energy. Shanu discusses the underlying fundamentals of this divergence, including interest rates and political uncertainties. He also sheds light on the electricity demand surge driven by AI and datacenters, and predicts a potential positive rebalancing for Core Cleantech in 2025.
The stark contrast between traditional clean tech underperformance and the success of clean tech adjacent sectors highlights differing market dynamics influencing investment strategies.
Anticipated load growth from data centers and AI advancements indicates significant future demand for energy, shaping investment opportunities in the energy transition.
Deep dives
The State of Clean Tech Investment
The clean tech sector faced significant challenges over the past year, with companies in traditional clean tech sectors like solar and wind experiencing substantial underperformance compared to broader market indices. For instance, while the S&P 500 returned 30% during the last year, clean tech indices saw declines of 20-30%. This stark contrast highlights the difficulties facing clean energy investments, which were influenced by rising interest rates, fluctuating power prices, and decreased government support. As adoption slowed in emerging markets and as solar saturation occurred in established markets, the clean tech sector struggled significantly amid these challenging conditions.
Differentiating Clean Tech and Its Adjacent Market
Within clean tech, a distinction exists between traditional clean tech and clean tech adjacent sectors. Traditional clean tech includes renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and EVs, while clean tech adjacent encompasses industries like electrical equipment and HVAC that benefit from sustainability trends. Surprisingly, some clean tech adjacent sectors have thrived, with electrical equipment and HVAC companies performing well due to greater energy efficiency demands. These companies are exhibiting strong pricing power and growth due to a shift toward sustainability and electrification, contrasting sharply with the struggles of traditional clean tech firms.
Competitive Dynamics in the Energy Sector
The competitive landscape in clean tech is characterized by challenges for newer companies as they struggle to establish a competitive edge against established industries. Traditional clean tech firms often lack pricing power and visibility, leading to weak margins and cash flow, especially when competing with Asian market players. In contrast, clean tech adjacent businesses enjoy more favorable market conditions and established brands, which contribute to their stronger performance. This differentiation underscores the importance of understanding market dynamics and economic factors when assessing investment opportunities in clean tech.
Future Prospects and Emerging Trends
Looking ahead, the market is increasingly focused on the significant potential of load growth driven by advancements in AI and data centers. This is expected to increase electricity demand substantially as companies invest billions in infrastructure for energy-intensive applications. Emerging data centers are projected to require vast amounts of energy, leading to a growing opportunity for firms involved in their construction and operation. Investors are keenly observing how quickly this expected load growth translates into actual demand, with implications for various sectors in the energy transition.
For the first episode of 2025, Gerard and Laurent have the pleasure of welcoming Shanu Mathew. Shanu is a Senior Vice President at Lazard Asset Management and Portfolio Manager/Analyst on US Sustainable Equity.
We are going to analyse the performance of “Cleantech” Equities throughout 2024 and discuss what to expect for 2025. Let’s be honest: 2024 was an annus horribilis for “Core” Cleantech with major indices (S&P Global Clean Energy Index) down 20%. But 2024 was also an exceptional year for “Periphery” (or adjacent) Cleantech with companies like Siemens Energy and GE Vernova being star performers.
Why such a divergence between “Core” and “Periphery”? What fundamentals are sustaining such trends? Beside interest rates, political uncertainties, competition of China, there are some green shoots that certain segments have better captured than others.
And of course, we are talking about load growth and the rise of datacenters. A rising tide lift all boats, and Core Cleantech having been so much slaughtered in recent years due to past excesses, we foresee a positive rebalancing in 2025.
Overall, a very vast panorama of how the market values the future of the Energy Transition.
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