"EU Confidential" welcomes Florence Gaub, director of research at the NATO Defence College, and Ivo Daalder, former US ambassador to NATO. They discuss the "Europeanization of NATO," Europe's defense capabilities, vulnerabilities, and the potential consequences of a lack of reliance on the US. They also explore practical steps for European countries to defend themselves and the challenges they face in defense production and increased spending on defense.
Europe needs to strengthen its own defense capabilities to support Ukraine and defend itself, regardless of US support.
European countries must collectively enhance their defense capabilities and deepen defense cooperation to ensure credible deterrence against potential adversaries.
Deep dives
Europe's Vulnerabilities and the Need for Defense
The podcast episode discusses the increasing concern in Europe about the United States' commitment to defend and protect European countries, particularly in light of President Donald Trump's statements and actions. The episode highlights the potential dangers and vulnerabilities that Europe faces if it cannot rely on American support, focusing on the scenario of potential Russian aggression. The main vulnerabilities identified are countries in close proximity to Russia, such as the Baltic states. The podcast also raises questions about whether the NATO alliance would still be invoked and whether European countries would be united in their response to an attack. The need for Europe to strengthen its own defense capabilities is emphasized, particularly in terms of defense production, which is seen as one of the main challenges. The episode also explores the political and practical considerations involved in deepening European defense cooperation, such as the role of a European Defense Commissioner and increased spending on defense. Ultimately, the podcast underscores the urgent need for Europe to seriously consider its own defense and security in the face of a potentially unreliable United States.
The Role of NATO and European Countries
The podcast delves into the role of NATO and European countries in defending against potential Russian aggression. It highlights the importance of the Article 5 collective defense commitment, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all. However, it also raises concerns about the credibility and unity of NATO if the United States were to withdraw its support or not fully commit to defense. The discussion emphasizes the need for European countries to collectively strengthen their defense capabilities, including military spending and defense production. Different perspectives within Europe are highlighted, with some countries, like Poland and the Baltic states, already recognizing the urgency and taking steps to enhance their defense preparedness. However, other Western European countries, particularly Germany and the Netherlands, are seen as more hesitant and slower to adapt to the changing security environment. The podcast concludes by highlighting the ongoing debate about how a post-American-led NATO would function and what the practical consequences would be for Europe's security.
Challenges and Resistance to Defense Cooperation
The podcast addresses the challenges and resistance that European countries face in deepening defense cooperation and developing a more strategic and collaborative defense posture. One of the main challenges discussed is defense production and capacity, specifically the need for a significant increase in funding and resources to build up Europe's military capabilities. The episode identifies varying levels of commitment and hesitancy among European countries, with some, like France, recognizing the importance of strong defense and strategic thinking, while others, such as Germany and the Netherlands, being slower to prioritize defense spending and strategic planning. The resistance to taking a more aggressive posture is also explored, with the perception that Europe is primarily a peace project and the lack of willingness to engage in violent means to defend itself. However, the podcast highlights the increasing recognition that Europe needs to take its own defense seriously, whether it is under a Trump administration or the potential re-election of Joe Biden, stressing the importance of a stronger and more self-sufficient Europe.
Implications and Potential Scenarios
The podcast episode discusses the potential implications and scenarios that Europe may face if it cannot rely on the United States for its defense. It raises concerns about Europe's vulnerabilities and its ability to defend against potential Russian aggression, particularly in Eastern European countries like Estonia. The episode explores the impact of a lack of American support on the credibility of the NATO alliance and the need for Europe to develop a more strategic and independent defense posture. The potential consequences for Europe's security and the uncertainties surrounding the future of NATO are highlighted. The episode concludes with a discussion of the practical steps that Europe needs to take, including increased defense spending, defense production, and closer collaboration within the European Union, to ensure its ability to defend itself and maintain credible deterrence against potential adversaries.
Europe is waking up to the urgent need to strengthen its own defenses — especially as Donald Trump seems poised to capture the Republican nomination and possibly even the White House in November presidential elections.
In this episode, host Sarah Wheaton is joined by Florence Gaub, director of research at the NATO Defence College in Rome and a futurist, along with Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO and president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs (and a fellow podcaster: World Review with Ivo Daalder). They discuss the "Europeanization of NATO" and other tools that Europe has (or lacks) to support Ukraine and defend itself — with or without Washington.
Later, some of POLITICO's in-house defense experts, Laura Kayali and Jan Cienski, discuss the brass-tacks realities of whether Europe can fend off a Russian attack on its own, and outline where it remains most vulnerable.
