China’s broken economy is a global problem. Can Xi Jinping fix it?
Oct 8, 2024
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Ian Williams, a former foreign correspondent and author of "Vampire State: The Rise and Fall of the Chinese Economy," discusses China's unsustainable economic model and growing challenges. He explores the tensions between state control and innovation in a slowing economy, highlighting the risks of dissent. Williams notes the alarming exodus of entrepreneurs and critiques governmental stimulus efforts. The conversation also touches on Xi Jinping's leadership style and the implications for both domestic reform and international relations.
China's economy faces unsustainability due to poor policies and overreliance on property investment, jeopardizing the Communist Party's legitimacy.
Xi Jinping's regime curtails economic criticism, complicating necessary reforms and leading to skepticism about official economic statistics and policies.
Deep dives
China's Economic Decline and Policy Failures
China's economy, once celebrated as a modern miracle, is currently facing significant challenges, including sluggish growth, rising debt, and an aging population. Problems stem from poor policy decisions, such as the creation of ghost cities filled with empty buildings, which contribute to the decline. The previous economic model, heavily reliant on property investment, has become increasingly unsustainable as diminishing returns set in. Economists within China recognize the need for a new, more consumer-driven economic model but question whether Xi Jinping's focus on state control will allow necessary reforms to occur.
Governance and the Stifling of Economic Discourse
In Xi Jinping's China, governmental repression extends to the economic sector, where criticism of the regime can lead to severe consequences, including the disappearance of dissenting voices. Despite calls for stable growth, there are doubts regarding the accuracy of official statistics, leading analysts to develop alternative methods of evaluating economic performance. This climate of fear hampers open discussion about economic issues, making it difficult for policymakers to assess and address underlying problems. The government’s propagandistic approach to economics restricts honest appraisal and further complicates the road to recovery.
The Challenges of Maintaining Economic Legitimacy
As China's economic growth slows, the legitimacy of the Communist Party, which historically relies on delivering prosperity, is increasingly at risk. Youth unemployment has reached alarming levels, raising concerns about social stability as economic opportunities diminish. The party's responses, such as suspending statistics, indicate a desperate attempt to control the narrative rather than addressing the root causes of discontent. Additionally, global perceptions of China are shifting, as foreign companies reassess their dependencies and consider strategies to mitigate risks associated with an uncertain Chinese market.
China’s economy has been described as “unsustainable” after a model of massive growth in recent decades begins to fail. How does it currently work, how might it change – and is Xi Jinping capable of leading – or even simply acknowledging – the shift it requires? With critical economists being jailed or literally disappearing in China, Ian Williams, the author of Vampire State: The Rise and Fall of the Chinese Economy, joins Gavin Esler to discuss the shifting economic landscape in China, its impacts and what might fix it.
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Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Audio production by Tom Taylor. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Art by James Parrett. Music by Kenny Dickinson. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production