Value After Hours S06 E06 200th Episode, Bill's Back, Value on Macro, Value and ZIRP, Farmer's Fable
Feb 19, 2024
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The 200th episode covers growth vs value investing, macroeconomic factors, historical mean reversion rates, economic policies, value investing strategies in a momentum-driven market, and a farmer's fable on pooling resources. The episode also touches on shareholder voting, regulatory decisions, and personal perspectives.
Pooling resources leads to more certain and profitable outcomes over time.
Predicting the future is challenging due to uncertainty and skepticism about accuracy.
Identifying companies with long-term growth potential is crucial for successful investing.
Deep dives
The Power of Pooling: A farmer's fable
This podcast episode explores the concept of pooling and cooperation through a farmer's fable analogy. The story showcases the advantages of sharing resources and diversifying risk in a multiplicative series. It illustrates how pooling and redistributing harvests can lead to a more certain and profitable outcome over the long run. The episode highlights the importance of avoiding large downs and the benefits of reducing fluctuations in order to increase growth and reduce risk. The discussion also touches on the value of teamwork and collaboration in achieving growth and success.
Predictions for 2024
The podcast briefly discusses the idea of making predictions for the year 2024. It presents the challenge of accurately predicting the future and highlights the uncertainty that comes with it. The hosts express their skepticism and acknowledge their inability to foresee what may happen in the coming years.
Summarizing Buffett's Chat
The episode mentions a conversation between Warren Buffett and Todd Combs about businesses that are expected to perform better and earn more in five years with 90% confidence. The hosts reflect on the difficulty of making such predictions and the importance of identifying companies that have the potential for long-term growth and profitability. While specific companies are not mentioned in the summary, the conversation revolves around the concept of investing in businesses that fit this criteria.
Short report on Fairfax
The podcast briefly discusses a short report on Fairfax Financial Holdings, a Canadian insurance company. The hosts express skepticism towards the report, noting that some of the complaints seem to stem from differences in accounting practices. They mention that the market has always had questions about Fairfax's underwriting, but overall, they find the report unconvincing and emphasize the need for thorough analysis before making any judgments.
The Future of AI and Zuckerberg
The hosts touch on the topic of artificial intelligence (AI) and Mark Zuckerberg's interest in building a robotics company. They discuss the potential risks and benefits associated with AI and debate whether Zuckerberg's intentions are valid. The conversation explores the responsibility of controlling the development and application of AI technologies, as well as the potential impact on society in the future.
Valuation and the Case for Value Stocks
The hosts examine the current valuation landscape and make a case for value stocks. They suggest that certain middle-of-the-road, old economy companies may present compelling value opportunities, even if they face headwinds. They argue that the prices of these companies do not indicate euphoria and note the importance of surfing through the value cycle to capture potential upside. However, they acknowledge the challenge of knowing when to sell such investments.
Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast
We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P.
About Jake
Jake's Twitter: https://twitter.com/farnamjake1
Jake's book: The Rebel Allocator https://amzn.to/2sgip3l
ABOUT THE PODCAST
Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I launched The Acquirers Podcast to discuss the process of finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations.
We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast/
SEE OUR FREE DEEP VALUE STOCK SCREENER
https://acquirersmultiple.com/screener/
FOLLOW TOBIAS
Website: https://acquirersmultiple.com/
Firm: https://acquirersfunds.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Greenbackd
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobycarlisle
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tobiascarlisle
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tobias_carlisle
ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE
Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®.
He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon’s Business and Finance The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Prior to founding the forerunner to Acquirers Funds in 2010, Tobias was an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer. As a lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions he has advised on transactions across a variety of industries in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore, Bermuda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Guam.
He is a graduate of the University of Queensland in Australia with degrees in Law (2001) and Business (Management) (1999).
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