Vineer Bhansali discusses transitioning from physics to finance, managing risk in portfolios, and mitigating tail risk. He explores parallels in ultra-marathon running, flying planes, and investing. The dangers of negative carry in bonds and equities are highlighted, along with the impact of AI on investing. Independent thinking in investments and the potential risks of automated decision-making are also discussed.
Effective risk management involves considering the full probability distribution of outcomes and systematically hedging against tail risk to enhance long-term performance.
To overcome time inconsistency in risk management, external nudges and disciplined approaches are crucial for sticking to long-term plans and avoiding impulsive decisions during market stress.
Allocating a small portion of the portfolio to tail risk hedging can provide significant protection during extreme events, offsetting the cost through smart option strategies and long-term perspective.
Deep dives
Understanding Risk and Tail Risk Hedging
Risk is multi-faceted and varies from investor to investor. It encompasses volatility, underperforming benchmarks, permanent drawdown risk, and more. Many investors rely on simplistic risk metrics like volatility, but these metrics often overlook important aspects of risk. To effectively manage risk, investors should consider the full probability distribution of outcomes, taking into account their specific asset portfolio. By understanding the potential bad outcomes and their likelihood, investors can determine whether they have too much, too little, or just the right amount of risk in their portfolio. Tail risk hedging is a strategy that helps protect against extreme events. While there is a cost associated with hedging, investors can view it as an investment in long-term performance. By systematically hedging against tail risk, investors can stay invested during market downturns and potentially enhance risk-adjusted returns over time.
The Importance of Time Consistency and External Nudges
One common pitfall in risk management is time inconsistency. Investors often create plans and strategies when things are calm but abandon them when unexpected events occur. To overcome this challenge, it's crucial to leverage external nudges and motivators that can help investors stick to their long-term plan. Markets can serve as an external nudge by providing tools like options. For example, investors can sell covered calls on the S&P 500, generating premium income and providing a tilt towards safer outcomes. This smart use of options can help minimize the cost of tail risk hedging. Additionally, having guardrails and constraints in place can help investors avoid impulsive decision-making during times of market stress. By creating a disciplined approach to risk management and recognizing the importance of time consistency, investors can enhance their long-term outcomes.
The Cost and Benefits of Tail Risk Hedging
Tail risk hedging does come with a cost, but it's essential to view this cost in the context of the overall portfolio and its long-term performance. Allocating a small portion of the portfolio's return to tail risk hedging can provide significant protection during extreme events. It's important to recognize that the cost of hedging can be offset by the potential gains from staying invested and capturing market rebounds. Furthermore, investors can explore opportunities presented by market dynamics. For instance, when equity options are relatively expensive due to high volatility and low interest rates, investors can sell out-of-the-money call options while buying out-of-the-money put options, essentially creating a protective hedge at minimal cost. By combining smart option strategies with discipline and a long-term perspective, investors can manage tail risks effectively while optimizing their risk-adjusted returns.
Managing Tail Risk
Tail risk refers to low probability events that have a significant impact on decision-making. It can result from distortions in the financial system, complacency, and excessive leverage. To mitigate tail risk, strategies can be employed, such as diversification, trend following, and using explicit options or cash. The key is to assess the existing portfolio and combine different tools to achieve a better risk profile.
Avoiding Herd Mentality
It is important to think independently and not automatically follow the herd in investing. Analyzing and understanding the underlying assumptions behind market moves is crucial. While AI and machine learning have their place, relying solely on technology can lead to potential pitfalls. The ability to extract real insight and think critically is still essential in navigating the markets. Investing is a continuous learning process, and every day presents an opportunity to gain new knowledge and improve decision-making skills.
Vineer Bhansali is the Founder and CIO of LongTail Alpha, which he launched after serving as a portfolio manager at PIMCO for 15 years. Vineer focuses on managing risk and protecting portfolios against material losses.
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