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Insightful Investor

#7 - Vineer Bhansali: Tail Risk, Investment Lessons

Feb 13, 2024
Vineer Bhansali discusses transitioning from physics to finance, managing risk in portfolios, and mitigating tail risk. He explores parallels in ultra-marathon running, flying planes, and investing. The dangers of negative carry in bonds and equities are highlighted, along with the impact of AI on investing. Independent thinking in investments and the potential risks of automated decision-making are also discussed.
01:09:11

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Effective risk management involves considering the full probability distribution of outcomes and systematically hedging against tail risk to enhance long-term performance.
  • To overcome time inconsistency in risk management, external nudges and disciplined approaches are crucial for sticking to long-term plans and avoiding impulsive decisions during market stress.

Deep dives

Understanding Risk and Tail Risk Hedging

Risk is multi-faceted and varies from investor to investor. It encompasses volatility, underperforming benchmarks, permanent drawdown risk, and more. Many investors rely on simplistic risk metrics like volatility, but these metrics often overlook important aspects of risk. To effectively manage risk, investors should consider the full probability distribution of outcomes, taking into account their specific asset portfolio. By understanding the potential bad outcomes and their likelihood, investors can determine whether they have too much, too little, or just the right amount of risk in their portfolio. Tail risk hedging is a strategy that helps protect against extreme events. While there is a cost associated with hedging, investors can view it as an investment in long-term performance. By systematically hedging against tail risk, investors can stay invested during market downturns and potentially enhance risk-adjusted returns over time.

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