Dan Berkovitz and Laurian Cristea discuss the regulatory and ethical challenges surrounding political event contracts. They explore the history, recent legal developments, and the future implications of betting on political outcomes, especially as the CFTC tightens its stance on these controversial markets.
Lee's X: @leereiners
Related Links:
CFTC proposed amendments to its rules concerning event contracts in certain excluded commodities: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/07/05/2024-14610/event-contracts
Elections Bets Go Live on Kalshi After CFTC's Court Loss: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/betting-on-us-congress-elections-outcome-green-lit-by-judge
US appeals court clears Kalshi to restart elections betting: https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-federal-court-upholds-ruling-letting-kalshiex-list-election-betting-contracts-2024-10-02/
Statement of Chairman Rostin Behnam Regarding CFTC Order to Prohibit Kalshi Political Control Derivatives Contracts: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/SpeechesTestimony/behnamstatement092223
A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market: https://www.wsj.com/finance/betting-election-pro-trump-ad74aa71