Not Investment Advice 246: SpaceX’s $1.5T IPO explained
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Dec 17, 2025 The conversation dives into SpaceX's fascinating $1.5T IPO, exploring how its valuation aligns with Starlink's potential revenue. The hosts discuss innovative ideas like AI data centers in space and compare Starlink's growth to AWS, highlighting its unique market position. A viral WSJ article on 'storytelling' trends in hiring sparks debate about marketing versus storytelling. Finally, they touch on the excitement surrounding the Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua fight, respecting the risks athletes take.
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SpaceX's Valuation Is Narrative + Real TAM
- SpaceX's valuation debate is grounded in real frontier TAMs like Starlink and launch dominance rather than pure hype.
- The company went from a $10B private valuation to talk of $1.5T because of unique market positions and narratives.
Starlink Is The Revenue Engine
- Starlink already accounts for most near-term SpaceX revenue and is expected to triple to ~$24B by 2026 according to investors.
- That recurring connectivity revenue is the foundation for much larger AI and infrastructure narratives.
AI Data Centers In Space: Physics Vs. Narrative
- The AI-in-space pitch links 24/7 solar access and cooling assumptions to massive compute capacity off Earth.
- Debate exists on heat dissipation, but leaders like Elon and Sundar likely see technical paths forward.