Bonus: Ukrainian Politics Deep Dive feat. Peter Korotaev
Apr 2, 2025
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Peter Korotaev, a writer and journalist focused on Ukrainian politics and the Russo-Ukrainian War, joins to unpack the intricacies of current events. He discusses President Zelensky's challenges amidst rising pro-Russian sentiments and the powerful influence of oligarchs. The conversation also covers NATO's role, international funding dynamics, and the Atlantic Council's impact on U.S. foreign policy. Furthermore, Korotaev highlights the illusion of modern warfare and the implications of American historical actions on Ukraine's present strife.
Zelensky's initial pro-peace platform faced significant challenges due to rising nationalism and shifting political dynamics in Ukraine.
Ukrainian oligarchs like Igor Kolomoisky have seen their influence diminish as Zelensky centralizes power amidst a complex political landscape.
The war has divided the Ukrainian military, with factions either pushing for continued conflict or desiring a ceasefire to relieve civilian suffering.
U.S. foreign policy towards Ukraine is becoming increasingly uncertain due to potential shifts in leadership and geopolitical strategies concerning Russia and China.
Deep dives
Zelensky's Initial Mandate and Challenges
Zelensky won the presidency of Ukraine by a significant margin, backed by a popular desire for peace and the implementation of the Minsk agreements. However, his lack of political experience and vague platform left him vulnerable to the complexities of navigating domestic and international expectations. As external pressures intensified, particularly from Russia, his pro-peace stance could not withstand the rising tides of nationalism and the demands of his political opposition. This led to a shift in his administration's strategy, moving away from peace negotiations and toward a more aggressive anti-Russian stance.
The Role of Oligarchs in Ukrainian Politics
Ukrainian oligarchs, such as Igor Kolomoisky, have played a crucial but contentious role in politics, exerting influence over presidential candidates and party lines. Initially supporting Zelensky, Kolomoisky's relationship with the West soured as his businesses faced sanctions, leading him to distance himself from Zelensky's administration. The oligarchs, once seen as key partners in Western-led efforts to combat Russian influence, have now become wary of the potential repercussions of continued military conflict in Ukraine. Their declining influence reflects a larger shift in the balance of power, as Zelensky centralizes authority away from these once-mighty figures.
Fragmentation of Ukrainian Military and Civil Society
As the war continues, the Ukrainian military is observed to have varying levels of commitment among its soldiers and factions, leading to significant internal conflict. Some individuals and groups within the military express a desire for a ceasefire, recognizing the toll the conflict has taken on civilians and soldiers alike. Conversely, nationalist factions advocate for a prolonged military engagement against Russia, often fueled by a sense of vengeance and patriotism. This divergence has raised concerns about a potential civil conflict arising from the frustrations of soldiers returning to a society fragmented by war and radical ideologies.
The Global Geopolitical Landscape and U.S. Involvement
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has highlighted the complexities of U.S. foreign policy, specifically in relation to Russia and China. As the Biden administration aims to contain Russian aggression, it faces pressure to reassess its commitments while balancing its approach to other global threats. The anticipated shift in U.S. leadership, particularly with Trump potentially regaining influence, instills uncertainty regarding the future of American involvement in Ukraine and its broader geopolitical strategies. These changing dynamics could lead to new alignments and conflicts, affecting not just Ukraine, but the entire regional order.
Media and Narrative Control in Ukraine
In Ukraine, the narrative surrounding the war is heavily influenced by various media outlets funded by Western interests, often shaping public perception and government policies. Key players within these media circles push for a nationalistic agenda that emphasizes military victories while downplaying internal fractures and societal grievances. Reports of pro-peace sentiments or calls for ceasefire are often drowned out in favor of pro-war rhetoric, creating a media landscape that mirrors the complex political struggles. This environment complicates efforts for dialogue and reconciliation, perpetuating a cycle of conflict rather than fostering any tangible resolution.
Possible Future Scenarios for Ukraine
As the war reaches a critical juncture, potential outcomes for Ukraine range from continued conflict to cautious peace negotiations. Analysts suggest a pressing need for dialogue to address long-term grievances and establish a framework for stability. However, key figures in Ukrainian politics face their instability, as Zelensky’s administration struggles with declining popularity and increasing opposition. The future hinges on whether a consensus can be established among various factions, demanding compromise and pragmatism amidst a pressing crisis.
Nationalism and Memory in Post-War Ukraine
An enduring challenge for Ukraine will be reconciling its national identity with the experiences and losses incurred during the conflict. The rise of nationalism has dominated the narrative, often overshadowing the complexities of a multi-faceted society where diverse perspectives coexist. As the country grapples with its future, how it remembers the war and the identities forged will play a critical role in shaping citizens' collective consciousness. The legacy of conflict, marked by loss and upheaval, will continue to shape the political landscape and inform future generations' understanding of their national story.
Felix sits down with writer & journalist Peter Korotaev for a wide ranging conversation on the state of the Russo-Ukranian War in the wake of the Trump administration’s spat with Zelensky & attempts at a peace deal, and loads of context on the politics of Ukraine, Russia, various oligarchs, the Atlantic Council, and other non-state actors that have led to this point.
You can find Peter’s writing on Ukraine here: https://substack.com/@eventsinukraine
And some other writing of note:
For al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2025/1/23/why-is-ukraine-struggling-to-mobilise-its-citizens-to-fight
Jacobin: https://jacobin.com/2022/07/ukraine-neoliberalism-war-russia-eu-imf
Canada Files: https://www.thecanadafiles.com/articles?author=645e6f082224bb01e8f3f37c
Arena https://arena.org.au/ukraines-borderline-disorder/
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