The Rundown Why Tariffs Haven't Tanked the Economy (ft. Justin Wolfers)
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Dec 21, 2025 
Justin Wolfers, Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the University of Michigan, discusses crucial topics surrounding the Federal Reserve's decisions and tariffs. He explains the significance of growing dissent at the Fed and how it impacts market perceptions. The conversation highlights the differences between cost-driven and demand-driven inflation, emphasizing the unique effects on households. Wolfers also critiques current policies affecting affordability and suggests reforms for improving living standards.
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Fed Disagreement Signals Genuine Uncertainty
- The Fed's dot plot revealed deep disagreement among policymakers, not just three dissents.
- Justin Wolfers warns this fracture signals real uncertainty about the path of rates and Powell's desire to preserve consensus.
BLS Data Can Be Imperfect Yet Honest
- Official employment statistics follow long-standing benchmarking procedures and are not being manipulated.
- Wolfers says measurements can be temporarily off without implying political interference or broken institutions.
Favor Official Statistics Over Political Claims
- Don't assume political figures' numbers deserve the same presumption as official agencies.
- Trust BLS releases but stay alert for credible signals if institutional independence is threatened.