This week we discuss NVIDIA's latest earnings, the ongoing market rotation from growth to value, and the connection between credit spreads and unemployment. We also delve into the health of the consumer, the future Federal Reserve balance sheet, and Bitcoin geopolitics. Enjoy!

--

On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b

--

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fUP_rOgvrTDONP2DfYnJyrzgbmWFt0mP/view?usp=drive_link

Kansas Fed Paper: https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/10443/Anil_Kashyap_Remarks_JH.pdf

–

Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

–

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

02:27 NVIDIA Earnings

08:12 Growth Vs Value

11:36 S&P 500 Earnings Growth

14:02 Yield Curve Steepening

17:40 High Yield Spreads

19:58 Credit Spreads, Unemployment & Recession

23:00 The Health Of The Consumer

29:59 Advertisements

31:14 The Future Fed Balance Sheet

37:05 Consequences Of Controlling Volatility

38:57 Central Bank Independence

41:18 Permissionless Ad

41:57 A Weaker US Dollar

44:54 Bitcoin & Geopolitics

53:19 Nobody Makes Money In Perps

56:51 Are Rate Cuts Bearish?

59:29 Will We Ever See Negative Real Rates Again?

01:02:02 Altcoins & Macro

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Season 2 Episode 8 Preview - Alex Press on Chipotle