Dwarkesh Podcast Satya Nadella – Microsoft’s AGI Plan & Quantum Breakthrough
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Feb 19, 2025 
Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft and a leader in AI and cloud computing, shares his insights on the future of technology. He discusses why he doesn't believe in Artificial General Intelligence but is optimistic about a 10% economic growth. Nadella unveils Microsoft's quantum breakthrough and how AI can revolutionize gaming with the Muse model. The conversation also touches on the evolving landscape of legal frameworks for AI and the decreasing costs of intelligence, stressing the importance of human dignity in future labor.
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Value Creation in Tech
- Satya Nadella observed that business model shifts are more challenging than tech trends.
- Accurately predicting where value will be created is crucial for success.
AI and Hyperscalers
- Hyperscalers will benefit from AI's increased compute demands, similar to the shift from client-server to cloud.
- The AI model landscape will likely not be winner-take-all due to open-source alternatives and government regulation.
Measuring AI's Impact
- Satya Nadella believes increased AI usage should correlate with significant GDP growth.
- He suggests a 10% growth target as a true measure of AI's revolutionary impact.