The war in Ukraine is at a stalemate, with little change in recent months, and is expected to continue for a long time.
Sanctions evasion, particularly in Central Asian countries, allows Russia to sustain its position in the war and should be addressed more.
Russia's influence in the former Soviet Union has weakened, except for Belarus, and China's relationship with Russia has strengthened, benefiting China as it observes the West's engagement with Russia in the war.
Deep dives
The war has entered a new kind of stalemate
The speaker believes that little has changed over the last few months and the war is now in a stalemate. The Ukrainian success in the Black Sea has been significant, dislodging Russia from its naval bases in Sevastopol and moving ships to Russia itself. However, the overall counter-offensive has not been successful. The war is expected to continue for a long time. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of recognizing that the world has changed since the start of the war and that there is no going back to the way things were before.
Sanctions evasion and its impact
The speaker highlights the issue of sanctions evasion, particularly in Central Asian countries like Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, which are exporting more to Russia since the start of the war. This sanctions evasion allows Russia to sustain its position in the war. The speaker believes that this issue should be talked about more. The speaker also points out the different perspectives on the conflict, with some countries being more tolerant of Russia's activities. The lack of a lasting peace agreement in Ukraine is also highlighted.
The weakening of Russian influence in the former Soviet Union
The speaker notes that Russia's influence in the former Soviet Union has weakened, except for in Belarus, which has become more dependent on Russia. The war has had the opposite effect of what was intended, with Russia losing ground in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. The speaker also mentions that China's relationship with Russia has been strengthened, benefiting China as it observes the West's engagement with Russia in the war. The speaker does not see the relationship between China and Russia as a partnership of equals.
The frustration with perceptions of the war
The speaker expresses frustration with the view that once the fighting stops, the world can go back to how it was before the war. The recognition that the world has changed since the start of the war is important. The speaker also highlights the cautionary tale of focusing on escalation and red lines, as it limits support for Ukraine and fails to recognize that Russia is the party escalating the conflict. The need for more support for Ukraine is emphasized.
The importance of recognizing the critical decisions being made now
The speaker emphasizes that everything being done and discussed now has consequences for the course of the war. It is important to understand that decisions made now are not out of our hands. The critical importance of political decisions and actions is highlighted.
Today, we bring you latest updates from across Ukraine, discuss broader strategic questions for the year to come for Russia, the West and Ukraine, and analyse the news that Russia’s oil and gas revenues have plummeted by 37pc in just one year.
Contributors:
David Knowles (Head of Audio Development). @DJKnowles22 on Twitter.
Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on Twitter.
Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @Francis Dearnley on Twitter.
Jonathan Leake (Energy Editor). @Jonathan__Leake on Twitter.
Ruth Deyermond (Senior Lecturer in Post-Soviet Security at Kings College London). @ruth_deyermond on Twitter.
Neil Hauer's article on Ukraine's 'War of Narratives':
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