Welcome to KAOS THEORY — a podcast series that Grant Williams and I are collaborating on that focuses on the intersection of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics in an increasingly disorderly world.

5/20/24: Episode 6 — Brian McCarthy

Brian McCarthy is the founder of MacroLens, an institutional newsletter focused on macroeconomics. Brian previously ran a single-strategy China-focused hedge fund at Emerging Sovereign Group from 2012-2019. He is an expert on China’s balance of payments and currency management.

Because China looms so large on the world stage both macroeconomically and geopolitically, this conversation is both timely and important in its implications. We talk about everything from China’s burgeoning bad debts, the Scylla/Charybdis Dilemmas facing the PBOC, and the impact of recent new tariffs on China.

Brian notably addresses both the Brad Setser “Shadow Reserves” Hypothesis as well as the Gavekal Revaluation Hypothesis and gives us some real-world lessons on how to navigate a currency regime that is heavily manipulated by central authorities.

Finally, we touch upon the geopolitical ramifications of China’s top-down, centrally planned economy and currency policies and specifically how they impact domestic policies in the US.

Brian can be found on these platforms:

Twitter/X: @briangobosox

Website: https://macrolens.com/

Substack: macrolens.substack.com

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Invasives: this is not my beautiful plant!