The David Lin Report Calm Before The Storm? What Shocking Consumer Confidence Data Reveals | Stephanie Guichard
Aug 17, 2025
Stephanie Guichard, a Senior Economist at The Conference Board, dissects the latest Consumer Confidence data, revealing a surprising uptick despite ongoing economic challenges. She discusses how tariffs and inflation fears shape consumer sentiment, emphasizing that while a recession isn't imminent, cautious spending may slow down. Stephanie dives into the complex relationship between consumer behavior and economic indicators, shedding light on rising CEO confidence and the impact of student loan debt on financial perceptions.
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Tariff Fears Dented Consumer Confidence
- Consumers became very worried after April due to tariffs and price concerns, leading to a sharp confidence drop.
- Confidence recovered slightly but remains below recent highs, leaving spending outlook uncertain.
Confidence Refines Spending Forecasts
- The Consumer Confidence Index refines spending forecasts conditional on income, employment, and rates.
- It doesn't map one-to-one to spending but signals how behavior may change given current conditions.
Why LEI And Confidence Can Diverge
- The LEI and consumer confidence can diverge because LEI weights manufacturing and yield spread heavily.
- Manufacturing weakness and yield-curve moves drove LEI declines even as consumer sentiment ticked up.