Author Seth Stephens-Davidowitz discusses his use of AI tools to write a book on NBA players and the implications for the labor market. They delve into the backgrounds of successful NBA players, the role of genetics in success, market failures in the NBA, the success of foreign countries in sending players to the NBA, and the impact of college choice on future success. They also explore the power of AI in writing and data analysis, the importance of efficiency in basketball, the influence of height and vertical leap on NBA success, and being lucky to pursue unique interests.
AI can automate tedious tasks and enhance creative processes in various fields.
Genetics play a significant role in determining success in basketball, influencing players' performance and salary.
Market inefficiencies in player selection can be improved by prioritizing undervalued traits, giving teams a competitive advantage.
Deep dives
The Use of AI in Creative Work
The podcast episode explores how AI can assist creative individuals in implementing their ideas more efficiently. The guest, Seth Stevens-Dividowitz, discusses his experience using AI tools such as Code Interpreter and its impact on his creative process. He explains how AI can automate tedious tasks like coding and data analysis, allowing him to focus on the fun and creative aspects of his work. Stevens-Dividowitz also discusses the potential future implications of AI in creative fields, suggesting that AI might even generate ideas and write entire books in the future.
The Influence of Genetics in Basketball
The episode delves into the genetic factors that contribute to success in basketball. It highlights the prevalence of identical twins in the NBA and the strong correlation between genetics and traits such as height, arm length, hand size, and vertical leap. Seth Stevens-Dividowitz examines the impact of genetics on NBA players' performance and salary, revealing that scoring points is a major determinant of financial success and social media popularity. He also discusses the potential future implications of genetic testing in identifying talent in sports and other pursuits.
Market Inefficiencies in Player Selection
The podcast episode explores market inefficiencies in the selection of basketball players. Seth Stevens-Dividowitz identifies various factors, such as hand size and standing vertical leap, that are undervalued by teams when evaluating players in drafts. The data suggests that these overlooked traits can significantly impact a player's performance. Stevens-Dividowitz suggests that teams should prioritize these factors more in their decision-making process to improve player selection and create a competitive advantage.
The Influence of Height in Basketball
One of the main findings in the podcast episode is the significant impact of height in basketball. It is revealed that height plays a crucial role in determining success in the sport, with taller players having a much higher chance of making it to the NBA. The analysis shows that the probability of reaching the NBA increases exponentially with each incremental inch in height. However, the data also uncovers that as players get taller, their athletic abilities on various measures tend to decline. This is attributed to a lack of competition among taller individuals, resulting in a lower overall skill level. The discussion prompts reflection on the fairness and selection process in basketball, raising questions about the dependence on height as a determining factor of success.
The Impact of Foreign Sports Culture on Basketball Talent
The episode explores the relationship between a country's interest in volleyball and its impact on basketball talent. Surprisingly, it is revealed that countries where volleyball is more popular tend to have fewer successful basketball players. This phenomenon is attributed to the similar body types required for both sports, as small forwards in basketball share similarities with volleyball players in terms of height and physique. In countries where volleyball is highly celebrated, individuals who have the potential for basketball success are often steered towards playing volleyball instead. This factor contributes to the underexplored talent pool in certain countries, and suggests that NBA scouts and teams could benefit from targeting these nations and promoting opportunities in basketball.
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz has unusually written an unusual book.
The data analysis included in "Who Makes the NBA?: Data-Driven Answers to Basketball's Biggest Questions" normally would have taken Seth, a trained economist, multiple years of writing and running code. But because of new artificial intelligence tools, he finished the book in just thirty days. And he used AI tools not just for the coding, but also for the artwork, copy editing, and even to write the appendix.
He discusses with Cardiff the lessons he learned about using AI, and what such accelerated productivity might mean for the future of the labor market.
Then they discuss the actual findings in the book, an investigation into the backgrounds of the basketball players who make it to the NBA and succeed when they get there. How much of success is genetic? What accounts for the NBA's market failures—the traits of players who get paid too much and too little relative to their contributions? Why do some foreign countries have such astonishing success at sending players to the NBA? Does the choice of college really matter for future success?
The answers to these questions are surprisingly revealing about the experiences of non-basketball players, and about the relationships between luck, skill, parenting, undiscovered talent, the economy, and other familiar variables.