Macro strategist Tavi Costa discusses potential bubbles in hard assets, fiscal dominance, and investment opportunities in emerging markets. He analyzes the growth potential of various commodities and suggests considering hard assets for long-term investments.
Tavi Costa advises focusing on hard assets and value stocks, expecting a repeat of the market structure in 2022.
Costa expresses a bearish view on technology stocks, favoring small caps and hard assets over expensive technology stocks.
Deep dives
Focus on Hard Assets and Value Stocks in 2024
As we enter 2024, macro strategist Tavi Costa emphasizes the importance of focusing on hard assets and value stocks. He believes that the market structure of 2022, where value stocks outperformed growth stocks, is likely to repeat itself. Costa expects the treasury market to continue experiencing higher volatility and yields across the yield curve. He highlights the potential for the steepening of the yield curve, especially in a stagflationary or deflationary crisis. Costa remains focused on niche areas of the market, such as metals and mining, where he sees significant opportunities. Additionally, he identifies emerging markets, particularly those with resource exposure, as a trend to watch in 2024.
Rethinking Technology Stocks and Capital Expenditures
Costa expresses a bearish view on technology stocks, questioning their valuations and growth potential. He highlights that technology companies are now becoming more capital intensive, spending more on capital expenditures, which could impact their profitability in the long run. Costa favors small caps over large caps in the technology space, citing limited growth potential in large cap names. He also notes that hard assets, such as mining and energy companies, offer better value propositions compared to expensive technology stocks. Costa believes that a potential recession could further favor hard assets over financial assets.
The Potential for Higher Bond Yields
Costa anticipates increased bond volatility and higher bond yields in 2024. He suggests that the 10-year bond could drive the steepening of the yield curve, and long-term yields could surprise to the upside. Costa points out the funding issue faced by the US and developed economies, highlighting the unprecedented amount of treasuries that will need to be re-issued. He speculates that long-term yields could reach levels of 5.5% to 6%, considering the potential changes in interest rates, fiscal policy, and capital flows.
Opportunities in Commodity and Emerging Markets
Costa highlights the potential opportunities in the commodity space, particularly in energy, metals, and agricultural commodities. He discusses the rotation of commodities and notes that each commodity will experience different cycles. While Costa acknowledges the risks associated with investing in Argentina, he suggests that other South American countries may offer better opportunities. He emphasizes the resource-rich economies with neutral geopolitical leadership, such as Brazil, as safer bets in emerging markets. Costa also mentions the potential trade opportunities in Chinese equities, despite his personal reservations.
Tavi Costa, member and macro strategist at Crescat Capital, joins Maggie Lake to discuss, the implications of a bounceback bond yields, the market's response to some strong payroll numbers and consumer data, and how he's positioning for the months ahead.
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