Science Quickly Hurricane Forecasting 101
Sep 3, 2025
Andrea Thompson, Senior News Editor for Sustainability at Scientific American, dives into the fascinating world of hurricane forecasting. She discusses how advancements have improved predictions but clarifies common misconceptions, especially regarding the cone of uncertainty. Listeners learn the importance of understanding forecast maps and the need for ongoing vigilance during storms. Thompson emphasizes consulting reliable local sources to navigate hurricane risks effectively, making preparedness crucial in the ever-changing landscape of storm intensity and paths.
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What The Cone Actually Means
- The cone shows where the center of the hurricane is most likely to go, not where impacts will occur.
- It is built from average track errors over the past five years, not the spread of model runs.
Use The Cone As An Early Warning
- Use the cone as a first check: decide if you need to watch the storm further.
- If you're near or inside the cone, monitor forecasts closely; don't assume safety outside it.
Cone Gives Rough Timing
- The cone timeline shows forecast positions at 12-hour intervals up to three to five days ahead.
- Those timestamps indicate projected center locations and give a rough sense of timing, not precise impact times.