In this discussion, Zineb Riboua, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute, brings her expertise on foreign policy and great power competition. She delves into Trump's use of tariffs as a foreign policy tool and challenges the notion of idealism in international relations, promoting a realist perspective akin to Henry Kissinger. Riboua also analyzes the Gaza crisis, U.S.-Russia relations amidst the Ukraine conflict, and geopolitical shifts in the Sahel, all while emphasizing the complex interplay of identity and cultural narratives in shaping policy.
Zineb Riboua advocates for a realist perspective in foreign policy, emphasizing interests and capabilities over idealistic principles.
The conversation critiques the Biden administration's unclear strategy for supporting Ukraine, highlighting partisan divides in U.S. foreign policy.
Riboua underscores the shifting balance of power in the Sahel, driven by Russian and Chinese influences amid U.S. policy failures.
Deep dives
Background of the Guest
The guest on the episode is a research fellow at the Hudson Institute, focusing on Middle Eastern peace and security. She is knowledgeable about Chinese and Russian involvement in the region, along with her experiences living in Morocco, France, and the United States. Her ability to speak Arabic and French allows her access to unique perspectives and media that many American analysts might miss. This multicultural background contributes to her well-rounded understanding of the complex geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.
Trump's Controversial Plans for Gaza
The discussion highlights Donald Trump's remarks about displacing Palestinians in Gaza to create new development opportunities. The guest sees potential displacement as problematic, raising concerns about how it would affect regional stability and the future of neighboring countries like Egypt and Jordan, which already struggle with their own Palestinian populations. Important points include the need for a reconstruction plan that does not involve forced displacement, as suggested by dialogues among Arab nations opposed to such radical actions. The conversation emphasizes how Trump's controversial statements pressure other countries to collaborate and find a middle ground.
The Complexity of Ukrainian Support
The guest provides insight into the complexities of U.S. support for Ukraine amid the ongoing war with Russia. She critiques the Biden administration's approach, arguing that it lacks a clear strategy and fails to adequately support Ukraine’s military needs. The guest believes that while Trump’s previous engagement with Ukraine was promising, his shift away from support reflects broader partisan divides that complicate the conflict. It suggests that Ukraine’s future may hinge on navigating its relationship with the U.S. while grappling with domestic and international perceptions.
Geopolitical Maneuvering in the Sahel
The conversation turns to geopolitical dynamics in the Sahel, where the guest notes Russian and Chinese interests in resource extraction and strategic influence. She describes how Russia supports local military regimes in countries such as Mali and Niger, promoting anti-French sentiments and creating a power vacuum that increases their foothold. The sectoral competition involving military, economic, and cultural investments highlights the shifting balance of power in this crucial region. The U.S. is criticized for failing to establish coherent policies that address local priorities, which could diminish its influence.
The Role of Ideology in Foreign Policy
The podcast explores how ideology shapes American foreign policy, with the guest expressing skepticism about its effectiveness. She argues that a focus on pragmatic, transactional relationships would yield better outcomes than ideological posturing that may alienate partner nations. This perspective stresses the importance of understanding local contexts and needs rather than imposing Western ideals that may not be applicable. The discussion suggests that a realist approach prioritizing strategic interests could foster more effective international relations.
Today on Unsupervised Learning Razib talks to Zineb Riboua, a research fellow and program manager of Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East. She specializes in Chinese and Russian involvement in the Middle East, the Sahel, and North Africa, great power competition in the region, and Israeli-Arab relations. Riboua’s pieces and commentary have appeared in the Wall Street Journal,Foreign Policy, the National Interest, the Jerusalem Post and Tablet among other outlets. She holds a master’s of public policy from the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University. She did her undergraduate studies in France, where she attended French preparatory classes and HEC Paris’ Grande Ecole program. Her Substack is Beyond the Ideological.
Razib and Riboua discuss the Trump administration’s theory of tariffs as a tool of foreign policy and his attitudes toward multilateral diplomacy. They explore whether any principle beyond power and dominance underlies the current administration’s approach, and consider the role of principles and values in foreign policy. Riboua elaborates a realist perspective in line with the thinking of Henry Kissinger. States have interests and abilities to execute on those interests; idealism is secondary. Riboua also discusses the fact that Trump seems attuned to how foreign politicians relate to the American domestic scene. He seems willing to punish those abroad whom he perceives to be favorable to his political enemies and reward those who are personally favorable toward him. Razib then asks Riboua about the geopolitics of her native Morocco, a relatively stable monarchy on northwest Africa’s edge that has promoted moderate Islam, a good relationship with Europe and maintained a stable democracy.
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