Transmission Forecasting When the Grid Has No Margin for Error with Sean Kelly (Amperon)
4 snips
Jan 27, 2026 Sean Kelly, co-founder and CEO of Amperon, a former energy trader and power-plant operator turned AI forecaster. He discusses advanced weather-driven models for renewables, forecasting net demand and its market impacts, data quality differences across regions, and how rapid data center growth is reshaping grid planning and reliability.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Early Warning During Winter Storm Uri
- Sean Kelly warned customers nearly two weeks before Winter Storm Uri and predicted it would probably happen soon.
- Customers who acted early bought low-priced power and later sold at extreme spot prices, making large gains.
Net Demand Is The New Focus
- Net demand (demand minus wind and solar) matters more than raw demand for system operations and trading.
- Forecasting must include wind and solar to reflect the grid's actual needs.
Ensemble Models For Robust Forecasts
- Ensemble multiple models and weather vendors rather than relying on one forecast.
- Retrain frequently and blend models to capture strengths and reduce single-model weaknesses.