The DSR Network China Understands How to Deal with Trump, Why Don't America's Leaders?
Oct 29, 2025
In this discussion, Melanie Hart, a senior director at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub and former State Department advisor, delves into the complexities of U.S.-China relations. She predicts limited concessions in the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, emphasizing China's confidence in leveraging rare-earths and tech ambitions. Hart also warns of potential long-term risks as countries de-risk from Chinese supplies. The conversation highlights the delicate balance of diplomacy, with Taiwan's concerns and Trump's unpredictable tone in focus, making for a captivating geopolitical analysis.
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APEC Likely Produces A Limited Truce
- The APEC meeting will likely produce a limited truce that nudges relations back toward March 2025 rather than a major breakthrough.
- Expect partial tariff rollbacks, paused Chinese export controls, and modest Chinese purchases, not a full reset.
Series Of Meetings To Box In Concessions
- The meeting is the first of many engagements meant to box in concessions across 2026, including a likely Trump visit to China and Xi's U.S. trip at the G20.
- Each meeting will be used by both sides to extract incremental gains, not to settle everything at once.
China Confident Yet Short‑Sighted
- Beijing feels largely confident and sees the U.S. as weakened, but Chinese leaders worry about unpredictability around Xi's engagements.
- China may win short-term concessions but risks accelerating global de-risking from Chinese supply chains.