Will 2026 Be Venture Capital’s Best Ever Year?

Jan 13, 2026

39:41

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A seed-stage fund gets 10 markups… and a YC company hits a 4.5x in 9 months.

That’s the vibe heading into 2026. Speed is up, liquidity is thawing, and AI is compressing timelines across YC and the broader venture market.

In this episode of The Lobster Talks, we recap Lobster Capital’s breakout 2025, unpack why seed → Series A is getting cut in half, and lay out the sharpest 2026 prediction: the liquidity cycle is coming back… via IPOs, M&A, secondaries, and “creative” acquihires. We also dig into the counter-trend: as AI floods everything, founders are building real-world, tangible products that pull people off screens… Powered by AI, Not anti-AI.

What you’ll learn in this episode:

Why seed → Series A is moving from 18–24 months to ~9 months in top YC companies
How a YC-backed company can go 0 → $10M ARR in ~14 months and keep growing 40% MoM
Why DPI + liquidity is the only KPI LPs ultimately care about
The new playbook: VC + PE strategies converging as AI makes roll-ups and efficiency leaps inevitable
The “opposite reaction” to AI: hardware + real-life communities powered by AI agents
What’s showing up in Winter 2026: robotics, hardware, and a surprising wave of space tech

📌 Watch now and subscribe for more smart, fast, founder-first interviews.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Cold Open

00:46 Welcome to The Lobster Talks

01:16 Recap of 2025 Achievements

02:19 Series A Success and Future Predictions

07:50 The Importance of Liquidity in VC

09:35 AI's Transformational Impact

18:58 The Role of YC and Future Outlook

21:45 AI Note Taker: A Physical Product in 2026

22:36 Digital Detox: Reconnecting with the Real World

23:59 Lobster Capital's Portfolio: RealRoots and Sunflower