FARSIGHT A World Without Youth
Apr 28, 2023
Demographers warn of a world grappling with an aging population and declining birth rates. The discussion highlights alarming trends in countries like China and Japan, facing negative growth. Fertility is plummeting globally due to socio-economic shifts. South Korea's extreme numbers are particularly shocking. Alarmists predict imminent collapse, but many experts remain skeptical. The impact on economies and healthcare systems is profound. Innovative solutions like biotechnology and robotics might offer hope, but concerns about cultural vitality loom large.
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Global Population Is Nearing A Peak
- Global population hit 8 billion in 2022 and is projected to peak then decline later this century.
- Multiple projections disagree on timing, but most foresee a future peak followed by decline.
Embrace Migration To Mitigate Decline
- Countries that embrace immigration and attractive living conditions will likely fare better during decline.
- Isolationist or protectionist policies risk deepening demographic and economic problems.
Projections Vary Widely By Model
- Different institutions project different peak years and end-century totals, reflecting deep uncertainty.
- Some models even predict dramatic long-term declines if fertility falls to very low levels.
