The Fed Decision and Middle East Conflict

Jun 18, 2025

Jack Devine, founder of The Arkin Group, shares insights on the U.S.'s potential involvement in the ongoing Middle East conflict, specifically regarding Iran, assessing national security implications. Michael Darda, Chief Economist at Roth Capital Partners, discusses the Fed's influence on inflation and market dynamics, highlighting how geopolitical tensions impact economic forecasts. Together, they explore how these factors intersect, shaping investment strategies amidst uncertainty.

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INSIGHT

Strong US-Israel Intelligence on Iran

The US and Israel have strong intelligence capacity on Iran's nuclear capabilities.
This intelligence sharing places the US well to handle the evolving situation.

INSIGHT

Iran’s Military Disadvantage

Iran is militarily overmatched against the US and Israel.
Without air defense, Iranian leaders face peril if conflict escalates militarily.

INSIGHT

US Has Capability to Destroy Fordow

The US possesses specialized ordnance to destroy Iran's fortified nuclear site at Fordow.
This capability significantly limits Iran's nuclear development options.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 18th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Jack Devine, founder at The Arkin Group, joins to discuss what US involvement in the Middle East conflict could look like and how US national security could weigh striking Iran. An overnight meeting between President Trump and his national security team has raised speculation that the US may join Israel's attacks against Iran. Trump has posted demands for Iran's "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" and threatened a possible strike against the country's leader, while Iran has reiterated its intention to respond with force if the US gets involved.
2) Michael Darda, Chief Economist at Roth Capital Partners, joins for a look ahead to the Fed and talks about the outlook for inflation and markets. Socks and bonds posted small gains as investors waited for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision and new economic forecasts. The Fed's latest projections for growth, unemployment, and interest rates will be closely watched.
3) Win Thin, Global Head: Markets Strategy Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., reacts to jobless claims and looks ahead to the Fed and potential for more inflation in the US. Fed policymakers face heightened uncertainty as geopolitical tension add to the inflation and labor market risks that are tied to the Trump administration’s tariff policies.
4) Leslie Palti-Guzman, founder at Energy Vista, talks about rapidly rising oil prices and if there will be any let up as Middle East fighting continues. Oil prices pulled back from a near five-month high, with Brent crude trading below $76 a barrel, as markets awaited news on US involvement in the Middle East conflict. Middle Eastern oil that loads outside the Persian Gulf and Malaysian crude are gaining popularity among Asian buyers due to the Israel-Iran conflict threatening the Strait of Hormuz.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including an NYT story on Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders getting a 400% pay raise and a WSJ story on private space stations racing to be the next popular travel destination.

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