Living in a Post Cycle World

38 snips

Oct 11, 2024

David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, shares expert insights on current economic challenges. He delves into the impact of inflation on market recovery, the complexities of a strong dollar, and the implications of tariffs in today's economy. The conversation touches on household debt stability and the effects on the middle class during the housing crisis. Kelly also discusses the shift from manufacturing to a service-oriented economy, emphasizing innovations that might shape future investment strategies.

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INSIGHT

Market Concentration and Valuation

The stock market has rallied due to repeated confirmations of a soft landing, but this has led to concentration and valuation issues.
Despite a slow economy, investors keep adding money, creating these issues.

INSIGHT

Impact of Strong Dollar

A strong dollar makes US goods expensive abroad, hurting manufacturing jobs and creating social consequences.
This contributes to wealth concentration, benefiting the rich while hindering the middle class.

ADVICE

Caution Against Tariffs

Tariffs are a risky policy tool that can lead to stagflation.
They raise inflation while simultaneously causing recession.

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On episode 161 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss: inflation, the economy vs the market, the downside of a strong dollar, the problem with tariffs, and much more!

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