'Chussia Anxiety': Why Donald Trump wants to “un-unite” China and Russia
Nov 20, 2024
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In this engaging discussion, Geoff Raby, former Australian ambassador to China and author of Great Game On, shares his insights on the complex dynamics between China and Russia. He explores Trump’s strategy to create rifts in their collaboration, revealing surprising factors that could weaken their ties. Raby also examines the implications of tariffs on global trade and how geopolitical shifts, particularly in Central Asia, are reshaping alliances. His nuanced take clarifies that the ‘Chussia’ partnership may not be as solid as it seems, impacting future U.S. foreign policy.
Trump's expected return could lead to a more aggressive U.S. foreign policy, prioritizing transactional diplomacy over ideological values like human rights.
China's growing influence in Central Asia challenges Russia's traditional dominance, which may significantly impact Australia's foreign policy and economic strategies.
Deep dives
Trump's Foreign Policy Approach
Donald Trump's impending return to the White House suggests a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, particularly concerning great power relations. Unlike his previous term, where he was somewhat constrained by traditional advisors, Trump is expected to pursue a more aggressive and unconstrained approach this time. He intends to prioritize negotiations and relationships with world capitals over ideological considerations, which may lead to a transactional style of diplomacy that minimizes discussions on human rights or democracy. Appointments of hawks like Marco Rubio as Secretary of State indicate a possible tough stance on China, setting the groundwork for potential confrontation.
Impact on U.S.-China Relations and Global Trade
Trump's plans to impose aggressive tariffs on Chinese goods threaten to escalate tensions between the United States and China, potentially disrupting global trade. Proposals of tariffs as high as 60% could significantly affect the U.S. economy, leading to higher prices for consumers and inflationary pressures. In anticipation of these changes, China may redirect trade towards other regions, further complicating the U.S.'s economic standing. Australia's economy, which relies on trade with China, could face negative repercussions from these developments, indicating a need for caution regarding international trade practices.
China's Strategic Gains in Central Asia
China appears to be gaining the upper hand in Central Asia, a region of historical competition with Russia, particularly following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Belt and Road Initiative showcases China's strategy to enhance its influence through infrastructure projects, contrasting with Russia's declining military presence in the area due to its ongoing challenges in Ukraine. The warming relationships between Central Asian states and China signify a shift in regional dynamics, impacting how these countries navigate their ties with both China and Russia. This evolving landscape poses strategic challenges for Australia as it reassesses its foreign policy and economic dependencies amid a changing global order.
This week on The Fin podcast, AustralianFinancial Review contributor and former diplomat Geoff Raby on Trump’s world and what it means for Australia and why China and Russia are less close than you might think.