Conversations: The Changing Face of Private Credit at Oaktree Conference 2024
Sep 17, 2024
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Explore the fascinating evolution of private credit as a crucial asset class since the financial crisis. Discover insights on the delicate balance of excess capital versus limited deal flow and the recent shift towards retail fundraising. Dive into the intricate dynamics between banks and private credit firms, and examine the surge in asset-backed finance amid changing market conditions. Unearth emerging investment strategies and opportunities, especially in Southern Europe's hospitality sector, highlighting the challenges and rewards in this unique financial landscape.
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Quick takeaways
Private credit has evolved dramatically, growing from under $250 billion to approximately $1.2 trillion, showcasing its significant market importance.
The interplay between private credit firms and banks has become increasingly complex, with both competition and collaboration shaping future lending dynamics.
Deep dives
The Growth of Private Credit
Private credit has emerged as a significant asset class, growing from under $250 billion before the global financial crisis to approximately $1.2 trillion today. This rapid expansion is notable in comparison to high-yield bonds and leveraged loans, which have only doubled in the same timeframe. Projections suggest that the US private debt market could nearly double again in the next five years, indicating continued robust growth. The potential for capital doubling reflects strong demand amidst evolving market dynamics and solidifies private credit's position within the broader financial landscape.
Capital Supply and Demand Dynamics
A prevalent narrative in the private credit market suggests an oversaturation of capital chasing limited investment opportunities. Recent fundraising has seen a shift towards retail channels, leading to a situation where capital must be deployed quickly, sometimes resulting in inefficiencies in pricing. As a result, there have been periods of tightening terms and increased market efficiency, with supply beginning to catch up with demand. Ultimately, although the narrative points to a capital glut, adaptability and discipline in managing investments are essential for navigating this evolving landscape.
The Role of Banks and Market Share
The interaction between banks and private credit firms has been complex, characterized by periods of competition and collaboration. While banks had previously faced challenges, such as significant hung LBO risks, they are starting to regain market share, influencing the balance of lending opportunities. However, regional banks remain cautious due to the instability observed in the banking sector, which has impacted their lending capabilities. This dynamic creates a mixed outlook for the interplay between private credit and traditional banking, emphasizing the importance of both markets in providing financing solutions.
Asset-Backed Finance Opportunities
The landscape of asset-backed finance (ABF) is evolving, with increasing interest from investors looking to diversify away from traditional corporate credit risks. Regulatory changes have led to a retreat by many banks from certain lending areas, presenting opportunities for private credit managers to step in. This shift allows for more appropriately priced risk in ABF, which can yield attractive returns across a range of asset types, including music royalties and equipment financing. As Europe lags in market penetration, the region is poised for rapid growth in ABF, potentially doubling in size by 2027, highlighting a significant opportunity for investors in alternate credit strategies.
In this special edition of The Insight: Conversations, we’re airing an excerpt from the private credit panel held at Oaktree’s recent biannual client conference in London on May 15, 2024. Key members of Oaktree’s private credit platform discuss how the asset class has evolved in recent years and where it may be heading next. They explore the dramatic growth of private capital, the evolving relationship with traditional lenders, and the expanding opportunities in asset-backed finance.
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