John Palaslis, president of Realosophy, dives deep into Toronto's beleaguered condo market, highlighting the perplexing trend of empty units amid a housing crisis. He discusses the significant plunge in sales, driven by high prices and investor behavior. Palaslis also explores the challenges of high inventory and stagnant prices, stressing the need for government solutions to bridge the gap between population growth and housing availability. His insights shed light on the shifting motivations of buyers and the complexities facing first-time homeowners.
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Quick takeaways
The Toronto condo market is experiencing a significant slowdown as rising interest rates and investor sell-offs lead to elongated selling times of six to seven months.
There's an urgent need for a reevaluation of housing policies to align population growth with the production of affordable rental units to address the housing crisis.
Deep dives
Current State of Toronto's Condo Market
The Toronto condo market is currently facing unprecedented challenges, with a significant surplus of listings leading to unprecedented slow sales. A notable factor driving this situation is the increasing number of sellers, particularly investors looking to offload properties amidst rising interest rates and stagnating prices. Condominiums are now sitting on the market longer, with current listings estimated to require six to seven months to sell, compared to the usual three to four months. This trend underscores a disconnect between the supply of condos and buyer willingness to invest, with many potential homebuyers being priced out of the market.
Impact of Interest Rates on Investment
Rising interest rates have substantially impacted real estate investment dynamics, with mortgage payments for properties significantly increasing over the last few years. For a $600,000 condo, mortgage payments can now reach about $3,000 monthly versus approximately $2,000 when interest rates were lower, creating a hefty financial burden for investors. This shift has discouraged many 'mom and pop' investors, who once viewed real estate as a lucrative investment, leading them to reconsider their positions in the market. As prices stagnate and cash flow becomes negative, these investors are increasingly likely to exit, further contributing to the abundance of unsold units.
Long-Term Solutions and Housing Policy
The crisis in the Toronto condo market highlights the need for a reevaluation of housing policies, particularly concerning the construction of affordable rental units. While governmental initiatives to build more purpose-built rentals are underway, their effect will take time to manifest, particularly in a booming population environment. Experts indicate that aligning population growth with housing production is essential to alleviate mounting pressures in the housing market. Additionally, fostering community-specific, high-density housing developments could play a crucial role in creating diverse living options and stabilizing the market.
The condo market in Greater Toronto, whether it’s resale or new, is struggling.
According to a recent CIBC Economics study, sales have “have dived off a cliff” to their lowest level since the late 1990s. Some condos in Toronto are now sitting empty for six to seven months, despite an ongoing housing crisis in the country.
John Pasalis has been looking into why this is happening. He’s the president of Realosophy, a realty brokerage in Toronto. He’ll talk to us about the road that led to this point…and what can be done about it.
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