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Higher Rates Could Burst the AI Bubble — Here’s What to Own Instead

11 snips
Oct 5, 2026
Jesse Felder, investment researcher and founder of The Felder Report, explores whether persistent inflation could drive rates and Treasury yields sharply higher. He discusses the AI boom’s vulnerability to tighter credit, risks in private credit and bond markets, the shift from growth to value, and why commodities, gold, and other real assets may offer a sturdier portfolio counterweight.
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INSIGHT

Debt Supply Is Driving Yields Higher

  • Treasury yields are rising because new government and corporate debt supply is outpacing investor demand.
  • Felder argues investors may be underestimating how long the Fed will keep tightening as inflationary pressures rebuild.
ADVICE

Favor Value Over Growth As Rates Rise

  • Favor value stocks, consumer staples, and healthcare over long-duration growth names when rates rise.
  • Higher discount rates hurt distant growth earnings more severely, while value stocks benefited during the 2000 rotation.
INSIGHT

Leverage Could Trigger A Treasury Accident

  • Leveraged Treasury basis trades could amplify bond-market stress if yields and volatility rise sharply.
  • Private credit is already showing serious deterioration, with reported defaults near 6.5% and potentially 20% including payment-in-kind loans.
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