The Planet Money hosts and The Indicator hosts debate the economic indicators of 2023 and predict the indicator for 2024. Topics include the soft landing, consumer sentiment, housing market, interest rates, Bidenomics, and junk fees. Listeners can vote for the winner on Planet Money's Instagram. The hosts also discuss perceptions of the future, the impact of interest rates, populist pitches, and upcoming episodes.
The economic indicator of 2023 was the saga of the soft landing, with the question of whether the Fed could bring down inflation without triggering a recession.
Consumer sentiment reflected a disconnect despite positive economic data and a soft landing on the horizon, potentially shaping upcoming elections and policy decisions.
The lousy housing market in 2023, due to factors such as higher mortgage rates, impacted aspiring buyers and existing homeowners, making it an indicator of the year.
Deep dives
Indicator of 2023: The Saga of the Soft Landing
The main storyline of 2023 was the saga of the soft landing, with the focus on whether the Fed could bring down inflation without triggering a recession. This created a year of suspense, with monthly waiting for new inflation numbers and debates about the Phillips curve and yield curve. The whole year resembled a rom-com, with the question of whether the Fed and the soft landing would have a happy ending.
Indicator of 2023: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Vibes
A notable split emerged in 2023 between positive economic numbers and negative economic sentiment. Despite positive economic data and a soft landing on the horizon, consumer sentiment reflected a disconnect, which could shape upcoming elections and policy decisions. Thus, consumer sentiment is nominated as an indicator of 2023.
Indicator of 2023: Lousy Housing Market
The housing market in 2023 experienced slow movement due to factors such as higher mortgage rates, leading to fewer buyers and sellers. Existing home sales are predicted to be the worst since 1995. The lousy housing market became a hurdle for aspiring buyers and impacted existing homeowners. Hence, the lousy housing market is selected as an indicator of 2023.
Indicator of 2024: Interest Rates and the Fed
The indicator for 2024 is projected to be interest rates and the actions of the Fed. If the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates, it could have a ripple effect on car loans, credit card rates, and mortgage rates. A potential soft landing and defeating inflation may be celebrated with a ticker tape parade. Therefore, interest rates are proposed as the indicator for 2024.
Indicator of 2024: Industrial Policy and Bidenomics
Industrial policy, a proactive government approach to shape the economy by supporting specific industries like semiconductors and greener energy, could define 2024. The big question will be whether the swings in Biden's industrial policy start showing benefits in the economy. The impact of these policies will be influential in the presidential election year, making industrial policy a potential indicator for 2024.
Indicator of 2024: Junk Fees and Petty Economics
The Biden administration is targeting surprise fees known as junk fees, covering a range of services from credit cards to car dealerships. Proposed rules aim to lower late fees and reduce add-ons, ultimately benefiting consumers. This pursuit of eliminating small inconveniences that accumulate into billions of dollars could shape the economy and reflect lessons learned from the previous years. Hence, junk fees are suggested as an indicator for 2024.
Today on the show, hosts from Planet Money and The Indicator debate the economic indicators of this year and next year.
First up, we try to identify the figure that best captured the essence of 2023. The contenders: the possible soft landing, consumer sentiment, and the housing market.
And looking ahead to 2024, what will the economic indicator of next year be? Interest rates, Bidenomics, or junk fees?
Listen to our hosts make their case, and then tell us who won by submitting your vote via Planet Money's Instagram or email us with "Family Feud" in the subject line. Voting ends on December 31st.
This episode was hosted by Jeff Guo, Kenny Malone and Wailin Wong. It was produced by Julia Ritchey and Willa Rubin with engineering help from Valentina Rodriguez Sanchez. It was fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Kate Concannon edits The Indicator.