
Macrodose The BREAK—DOWN: Lula’s Dilemma w/ Sabrina Fernandes
Dec 3, 2025
Sabrina Fernandes, a Brazilian economic sociologist and head of research at the Alameda Institute, discusses Lula's complex presidency. She highlights early successes in reducing Amazon deforestation and the challenges posed by powerful agribusiness interests. Sabrina delves into land inequality, the tensions between development and environmental protection, and the impact of policies on family farming. She also critiques Brazil's mixed signals while hosting COP30, emphasizing the need for systemic reforms and a focus on legislative battles ahead of the 2026 elections.
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Deforestation, Not Energy, Drives Brazil's Emissions
- Brazil's main emissions come from land-use change and deforestation, not energy production.
- Lula reduced deforestation early on but focusing only on the Amazon risks neglecting other biomes.
Agribusiness Is A Political Power Block
- Agribusiness holds outsized political power by electing representatives and shaping policy.
- That coalition secures fiscal benefits and dismantles environmental rules when needed.
Export Commodities, Not Diverse Food, Drive Policy
- Brazil's agribusiness narrative claims it ensures food security, but it mainly produces export commodities and ultra-processed foods.
- Family agriculture, which supplies dietary diversity, receives far less subsidy than large agribusiness.

