Analysis of Michigan primary results reveals discontent within parties. Focus on Trump's and Biden's vulnerabilities. Discussion on looming government shutdown and immigration as key voter issue. Question raised on polling methods using pictures of RFK Jr.
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Quick takeaways
Discontent within parties shown by uncommitted votes in Michigan primary, signaling potential challenges for Biden and Trump.
Bipartisan challenges in Congress over funding highlight the looming threat of a partial government shutdown, impacting key agencies like Agriculture and HUD.
Deep dives
Michigan Primary Reactions and Uncommitted Votes
Trump and Biden easily won their respective primaries in Michigan. The uncommitted vote on the Democratic side received about 13% support due to disapproval of Biden's handling of the Israel Hamas war. On the Republican side, Haley overperformed her polls. The uncommitted vote signaled potential challenges for Biden but may not have significant impact in the general election.
Government Funding Deadline and Possible Shutdown
Congress faces a funding deadline to avoid a partial government shutdown. Disagreements over policy issues have delayed a bipartisan bill's unveiling. If an agreement is not reached, key agencies like Department of Agriculture and Housing and Urban Development will run out of funding. Republicans and Democrats are in a tense negotiation needing to avert a shutdown.
Border Security and Immigration Policy Challenges
Biden and Trump are focused on immigration with visits to the southern border. Polls show immigration is a key concern for Americans, possibly surpassing the economy. Bipartisan legislation on border security faced challenges, with demands from both sides making policy solutions difficult. Executive actions by Biden might be considered as a response to the lack of progress in Congress.
RFK Jr. Identification Poll Insights
A polling example tested respondents' ability to identify RFK Jr. among photos. Results showed an increase in correct identifications over time. Surprisingly, those with a very unfavorable view of RFK Jr. were more likely to correctly identify him than his supporters. This quiz was seen as engaging and reflected the public's knowledge about specific politicians.
The Michigan primary resulted in easy victories for both former president Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, but it also laid bare some discontent in both parties. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Bridge Michigan politics reporter Jonathan Oosting, POLITICO senior Washington correspondent and co-author of Playbook Rachael Bade, and 538 director of data analytics G. Elliott Morris about Trump's and Biden's vulnerabilities within their own parties. Later in the show the crew turns its focus to Washington to discuss the looming partial government shutdown and how immigration is continuing to grow as a key issue for voters. They also question whether a recent poll using pictures of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a "good or bad use of polling?”