Munk Dialogue with Graham Allison: the deteriorating relationship between the US and China
Aug 29, 2023
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Foreign policy expert Graham Allison joins the podcast to discuss the deteriorating relationship between the US and China, focusing on the potential triggers for conflict. They explore the consequences of this relationship, including the nuclear threat and the challenges faced by Ukraine. Despite the tensions, they highlight the importance of cooperation on global issues and the potential for shared interests in climate, technology, finance, and health to make these powerful rivals unwilling partners.
The deteriorating relationship between the US and China is driven by China's rise and challenge to US dominance, known as the Thucydides trap.
The risk of conflict and potential nuclear war between the US and China is heightened by tensions surrounding Taiwan's status and the US commitment to arming Taiwan.
Deep dives
State of U.S.-China Relations
The relations between the U.S. and China are arguably at their worst in 50 years. China's rise and threat to displace the U.S. from its dominant position has created a dynamic known as Thucydides trap, which historically leads to conflict. The structural reality of a rising power challenging a ruling power contributes to the deterioration in relations.
Taiwan's Role and Potential Conflict
Taiwan poses a significant flashpoint in the U.S.-China relationship. China sees Taiwan as an integral part of China and will fight to prevent its permanent separation. However, Taiwanese people value their self-governing, democratic system and resist becoming part of an autocratic China. The risk of conflict arises when provocative actions or political dynamics lead to a declaration of independence by Taiwan or a substantial U.S. recognition of Taiwan. This scenario could escalate quickly and potentially lead to a nuclear war.
Arming Taiwan and Risks of Blockade
The U.S. commitment to arming Taiwan, including offensive weapons, increases the risk of conflict. One potential scenario is a Chinese blockade of Taiwan rather than an outright invasion. In such a scenario, the U.S. would face the challenge of breaking the blockade and potentially escalating tensions. The risks involved in this scenario are high, as it could potentially lead to a military confrontation between the U.S. and China.
Nuclear Threat and Taboo
The risk of nuclear war between the U.S. and China is a significant concern. The nuclear taboo, which has prevented the use of nuclear weapons for over 75 years, is being challenged by Putin's loose language around nuclear weapons in Ukraine. If a conflict over Ukraine or Taiwan were to escalate to a nuclear level, the consequences would be catastrophic. The goal is to prevent a situation where a conflict breaks the nuclear taboo and leads to the use of nuclear weapons.
It’s no secret that relations between China and the US are at an all time low. And at the centre of this fraught relationship is the question of Taiwan: China is moving closer to asserting its territorial rights over the island, while US President Joe Biden has pledged to defend Taiwan, even going so far as sending defensive weapons to protect the country against a Chinese invasion. How should a superpower like the US respond to a rising power like China? Foreign policy expert Graham Allison joins us for a wide reaching conversation about this important moment in history, and how shared interests in the climate, technology, finance, and health could force these powerful rivals to become unwilling partners.
The host of the Munk Debates is Rudyard Griffiths - @rudyardg.
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Senior Producer: Ricki Gurwitz
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