Powell Says Recent Data Raise Confidence Inflation on Path to 2%
Jul 15, 2024
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Carlyle Co-Founder David Rubenstein discusses Fed Chair Jay Powell's optimism on inflation reaching 2%. David Konrad breaks down bank earnings, and Peter Atwater connects the economy to Wall Street. LinkedIn COO discusses AI in jobs, and Mary Ann Bartels gives investment insights.
The market is projecting sustained double-digit earnings growth over the next two years, driving equity markets.
Concerns persist about potential market corrections or crashes akin to historical bubbles, emphasizing risk management strategies.
Deep dives
Market Trends and the Trump Trade
Recent market trends suggest a pivot towards cyclicals and away from technology, particularly semiconductors, following better-than-expected CPI reports. The market seems to be pricing in a potential Trump win after his performance in the Presidential debate. Earnings reports for the second quarter are expected to be strong, with potential double-digit growth in earnings forecasted for next year.
Market Growth Outlook
The long-term outlook for the market points to a range of 6000 to 7000 for the S&P 500. While the target range is currently at 5600 to 5800, a potential 10% correction around the fall could sustain market growth over time. The market is projected to continue rallying, with a bullish trend expected into 2029-2030 despite potential corrections.
Economic Forecast and Investment Strategy
Earnings performance remains a key driver for equity markets, with analysts projecting sustained double-digit growth. The market outlook points to a range of 6000 to 7000 for the S&P 500 over the next two years. While potential recessions remain a historical norm, they are viewed as opportunities for investors to buy into an ongoing bull market.
Potential Market Risks
While market projections indicate bullish trends, concerns linger around the possibility of a significant market correction or crash reminiscent of past bubbles, such as the dotcom bubble. Comparisons with historical patterns prompt caution about the potential for market collapse by 50-60%, signaling the importance of risk management strategies.
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Carlyle Co-Founder David Rubenstein shares the details of his Peer-to-Peer interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell who said second-quarter economic data has provided policymakers greater confidence that inflation is heading down to the central bank’s 2% goal, possibly paving the way for near-term interest-rate cuts. David Konrad, Managing Director at KBW, breaks down bank earnings provides his outlook. Peter Atwater, President at Financial Insyghts, talks about connecting the economy to Wall Street and politics. LinkedIn COO Dan Shapero explains how AI is changing jobs and the labor market. And we Drive to the Close with Mary Ann Bartels, Chief Investment Strategist for Sanctuary Wealth. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan.