What is AWS after crossing the Chasm?

Aug 20, 2023

Explore AWS's future position in the evolving cloud market and their readiness to cross the chasm. Discuss their dominance, wide range of services, and significant investments. Evaluate their differentiation, innovation pace, and partnership strategy. Examine potential challenges and transformations ahead, including new leadership and market dynamics.

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Introduction

00:00 • 4min

Crossing the Chasm for AWS

03:55 • 7min

The Dominance and Future of AWS

10:34 • 12min

Evaluating AWS's Differentiation and Future Prospects

22:14 • 5min

The Future of AWS and the Challenges Ahead

26:56 • 3min

As the competitive cloud landscape is shifting, let’s take a look at some possibilities of what AWS might look like after they cross the chasm.

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SHOW NOTES:

3 Steps into a 10k race (Episode 428 on Software Defined Talk)
There’s no AI without the cloud (AWS CEO Adam Selipsky) - Decoder podcast
What comes after Zoom? (Benedict Evans)
Crossing the Chasm - Geoffrey Moore
Looking at Cloud hyperscaler CAPEX spending in Q2 2023 (Charles Fitzgerald)
Amazon has over half of all ARM servers (The Register)

IF ONLY 10-15% OF APPS ARE IN THE CLOUD, HAVE WE CROSSED THE CHASM?

AWS is $85B/yr business, after 17 years
AWS claims that 10-15% of IT is in the cloud
AWS has attracted startups, and mostly competes against legacy IT companies

AWS MOATS AND WHAT MIGHT COME NEXT?

Amazon/AWS has always made large CAPEX investments
AWS claims to have the largest farm of GPUs, and ARM servers
Open source projects are moving to licensing that reduces competition from AWS
AWS growth rate has been slowing since Q4 2021
Innovation? Application Portfolio? Pricing vs. Profitability?
AWS has done limited acquisitions and partners are kept at arms-length (vs. OpenAI / MSFT)
AWS seems to be behind in the AI race, although still very early in the market maturity
AWS doesn’t have a large set of “owned/branded” applications
What does a future AWS look like that is mostly infrastructure?

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