Real Vision: Finance & Investing Macro Mondays: September 29, 2025
13 snips
Sep 29, 2025 Andreas Steno, a macro researcher at Steno Research, joins to dissect current macroeconomic trends. He discusses the implications of a potential US government shutdown and why it's perceived as manageable. The duo delves into Eric Trump's Bitcoin remarks, assessing market sentiment and liquidity. Andreas also highlights the significant foreign equity flows into the US, revealing investor preferences. Additionally, he examines the competition between the US and China in AI capital expenditures, uncovering investment insights and potential value opportunities.
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Episode notes
Seasonality Needs Macro Context
- Bitcoin seasonality in October is strong but must be judged against macro context before assuming repeatability.
- Andreas warns QE talk is misguided; current liquidity expansion is private-sector driven, not Fed balance-sheet QE.
Don't Overreact To Shutdown Noise
- Don't overreact to recurring U.S. budget fights; markets and politicians have adapted to shutdown brinkmanship.
- Treat short-term shutdown headlines as low-likelihood market shocks unless funding truly collapses.
Cannabis Reform Is A Growing Investment Theme
- Federal legalization talk for cannabis adds momentum to an already advancing market with many states legalizing use.
- Andreas thinks medical and alternative-medicine reform is investable and not yet fully priced in.