

Battle of Ideas – is China in decline?
Oct 28, 2024
Tom Miller, a senior analyst at Gavekal Research, Isabel Hilton, a veteran international reporter and founder of China Dialogue, and Austin Williams, an architect and academic, dive into China's current challenges. They discuss the economic slowdown, youth unemployment, and perceptions of decline. The panel explores urbanization, advancements in technology, and the Belt and Road Initiative's evolution. They also touch on issues of national identity, surveillance, and the balance of optimism amid political changes, providing a nuanced view of China's future.
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Episode notes
China's Economic Peak
- China's economic peak depends on the definition of "peak".
- Peak growth has passed, but its share of the global economy might have peaked in 2021.
China's Strengths
- Despite overall economic concerns, China excels in specific sectors like advanced manufacturing and green tech.
- China is a global leader in clean tech, making it a key player in the green energy transition.
Openness and Success
- China's success correlates with its openness, particularly between the mid-90s and 2010.
- The subsequent retreat into authoritarianism poses challenges to managing new global and internal issues.