Tom Miller, a senior analyst at Gavekal Research, Isabel Hilton, a veteran international reporter and founder of China Dialogue, and Austin Williams, an architect and academic, dive into China's current challenges. They discuss the economic slowdown, youth unemployment, and perceptions of decline. The panel explores urbanization, advancements in technology, and the Belt and Road Initiative's evolution. They also touch on issues of national identity, surveillance, and the balance of optimism amid political changes, providing a nuanced view of China's future.
China's economic growth is experiencing a slowdown, particularly in real estate and technology, raising concerns about long-term economic vitality.
The youth unemployment rate has surged to approximately 19%, reflecting significant challenges and dissatisfaction among the younger generation amidst economic pressures.
China's international presence remains robust, especially in developing markets, despite concerns of declining Western confidence and rising geopolitical tensions.
Deep dives
China's Growing Economic Concerns
China's economy has been showing signs of slowing growth, with a notable decline in sectors that were once booming, such as real estate and technology. The youth unemployment rate has reached approximately 19%, reflecting significant challenges for the younger generation. Additionally, foreign direct investment has decreased, indicating waning confidence from international stakeholders. This combination of factors has led to a questioning of whether China is truly in decline or simply facing cyclical challenges that could be addressed.
Questioning Peak China
The term 'peak China' is debated among analysts, with opinions divided on whether China has already reached its pinnacle or continues to have room for growth. Economically, it is evident that China has moved away from the double-digit growth rates of the past, pivoting towards more sustainable growth models. Some argue that while its global economic share has decreased, China still leads in advanced manufacturing and clean technology sectors. Thus, while there may be signs of economic maturity, the potential for growth still exists.
Geopolitical Influence and Challenges
China's international influence remains significant, especially in developing nations, where it has been the largest bilateral creditor since 2017. Despite perceived declines in Western confidence in China, its relationships with emerging markets are strengthening, largely due to infrastructure investments and trade. However, challenges persist, such as geopolitical tensions with Western powers attempting to contain China and the risk of diminishing market access for Chinese firms. China's approach to affirming its soft power internationally requires delicate balancing amid these geopolitical dynamics.
Rising Authoritarianism and Public Sentiment
Under Xi Jinping's leadership, China has seen an increase in authoritarian measures, severely limiting civil liberties and dissent. This has created a culture of fear, where citizens are increasingly reluctant to express opinions that contradict state narratives. While leaders assert that such measures maintain stability, they may inadvertently breed greater public dissatisfaction, particularly among the youth who feel disillusioned by government policies. The critical sentiment is significant in a rapidly changing social landscape where traditional notions of patriotism are being reevaluated.
Demographic Challenges Ahead
China grapples with an aging population and a shrinking workforce, raising concerns about economic vitality in the long term. With the fertility rate declining, the government has attempted to encourage more births but faces resistance from younger generations valuing personal freedom. The labor market is further strained as many graduates struggle to find employment amidst increasing automation and educational mismatches. These demographic challenges could profoundly affect China's economic structure and social fabric if not addressed effectively.
Social Dynamics and Cultural Shifts
The cultural and social landscape in China is evolving, with younger generations engaging with global movements and digital platforms in ways previously unthought of. Despite stringent control over information and expression, narratives of cultural pride coexist with widespread curiosity about Western lifestyles. Citizens often compare their experiences with those in other countries, fostering a sense of disconnection from traditional narratives. This complex social fabric suggests a populace that is both influenced by the government's messaging and increasingly aware of global dynamics.
** This episode of Chinese Whispers was recorded in front of a live audience as a part of the Battle of Ideas Festival 2024. **
Is China in decline?
I was born in China in the 90s, and growing up it felt like the future was always going to be brighter. My parents were wealthier, more educated, better travelled than their parents, and it seemed assured that my generation would only have even better life chances.
But in the 2020s, China’s economic growth has slowed down. Some of the once-bright spots in its economy, like real estate, are in slow motion meltdown. In the last couple of years foreign direct investment into the country has been falling at a record pace. The youth unemployment rate from this summer shows that just under a fifth of people under 24 are jobless.
So how much of this is a considerable decline in the progress that China has made in the last miraculous half century, or is it just perhaps 'western bias' that’s blinding us to what is still a very positive picture?
On this live podcast, I discuss this question with a lively and experienced panel of China-watchers: Tom Miller, a senior analyst at Gavekal Research and author of two books on China; Isabel Hilton, a veteran international reporter and founder of the website China Dialogue; and Austin Williams, an architect by training who is also the author of numerous books on China, and teaches at the Xi'An Jiaotong-Liverpool University.
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